Influence of Prospective and Situational Sets on the Correctness of Probabilistic Judgments

David Charkviani, David Dzidziguri

Abstract


Investigation of psychical mechanisms of probabilistic thinking revealed its limited rationality, reflecting specificity of subjective comprehension of one on other problem by people. The concepts satisfying the theory of probabilistic thinking are impersonal, and determined by psychic mechanisms are personal. In case of personal rationality cognitive activity of people serves to satisfaction of different needs people have. Besides, when making decision they reveal purposive playing an important role in assessment of alternatives out of multiple possible choices. Considering the main principles of the set theory, we assume that functioning of probabilistic judgments is determined by relevant set formed in the process of purposive activity of human. As to temporary parameter, two forms of the set can be defined: prospective (orientation on the result of future event) and situational (orientation of the result of current event). In the conducted experiment the influence of the above mentioned sets on probabilistic judgments and confidence in correctness of the choice taking into feedback factor (mark of the fulfilled task) was studied.

Full Text:

PDF



European Scientific Journal (ESJ)

 

ISSN: 1857 - 7881 (Print)
ISSN: 1857 - 7431 (Online)

 

Contact: contact@eujournal.org

To make sure that you can receive messages from us, please add the 'eujournal.org' domain to your e-mail 'safe list'. If you do not receive e-mail in your 'inbox', check your 'bulk mail' or 'junk mail' folders.




Publisher: European Scientific Institute, ESI.
ESI cooperates with Universities and Academic Centres on 5 continents.