Maize Output Supply Response to Climate Change in Kenya: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Sufficient production of maize in Kenya is synonymous to food security and a source of income. Majority of the households in the country grow maize as the main staple food and forms the diet of over 85 percent of the population. Climate change potentially compromises maize production as 98 percent of agriculture is rainfed, threatening food security and rural livelihoods. This study sought to understand the effects of the changing temperature and rainfall patterns in Kenya on maize output. The study adopted Autoregressive distributed lag econometric modeling approach using data for the period between 1970 and 2014. The findings shows mixed response of maize output to rainfall and temperature changes depending on the period, with temperature variability having negative effects. In absence of climate change adaptation and mitigation, Kenya will become more food insecure. There is need to formulate all-inclusive policies paramount in building adaptation and mitigation mechanisms.