Scenarii Bioclimatiques A L’horizon 2050 Dans Le Departement De L’oueme Au Benin (Afrique De L’ouest)

Abstract

This study aims to determine the future bioclimatic atmospheres by 2050 according to the scenarios A1B and B1, in order to determine if the human health of the populations in the department Ouémé in Benin would be subjected to more or less harsh environments. To do this, this study was conducted using descriptive statistics methods, and bioclimatic index calculation (UTCI). The data used are the meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, insolation and wind) on a monthly scale over the period 1971-2014 and the data from 2020 to 2025 from the ReMO database. The results of this study make it possible to remember that the A1B scenario presents a distinct singularity, because it describes more bioclimatic atmospheres than the B1 scenario. Whatever the variations, the December- March period will be dominated by a hot atmosphere, while April-October by a more comfortable atmosphere. Differences between bioclimatic atmospheres by 2050 and the current one will reach +9.2 in February for the A1B scenario and +8.4 for the B1 scenario. This variation of future bioclimatic atmospheres simulated by means of the REMO data and UTCI will not be without effects on the health of children from 0 to 5 years old in the Department of Ouémé and therefore in the face of this future configuration. adaptations are proposed to the different actors in the study area.