Granger Causality Model of Retained Earnings and Financial Performance of Non-Financial Firms Listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), Kenya
Keywords:
Non-financial firms, Financial performance, Granger causality, Capital structure, Wald test, Forecasting
Abstract
Non-financial firms are central to economic development of nations, producing goods and services and alleviating unemployment by creating numerous job opportunities. Despite this potential inherent in non-financial firms, evidence shows that the non-financial firms listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) experience challenges in their financial performance, which lowers their capacity to invest. Although retained earnings have been used as a source of funding among listed non-financial firms, there is a paucity of research on the predictive power between retained earnings and the financial performance of these firms. Therefore, this paper focuses on addressing this paucity by modeling Granger causality between retained earnings and financial performance measured through Return on Assets (ROA) of non-financial firms listed on the NSE. The Wald tests revealed that the financial performance of non-financial firms Granger-causes retained earnings, but retained earnings do not Granger-cause financial performance. The conclusion drawn from these findings is that financial performance of non-financial firms listed on the NSE allows forecasting of future retained earnings. However, future research should leverage emerging advances like Network Granger causality to determine whether bidirectional Granger causality is viable between the two variables.
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References
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22. Josi, A. (2018). Causal relationship between tax revenue and government expenditure in Zimbabwe (2009-2016).
23. Jouida, S. (2018). Diversification, capital structure and profitability: A panel VAR approach. Research in International Business and Finance, 45, 243-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.155
24. Kristi, N. M., & Yanto, H. (2020). The effect of financial and non-financial factors on firm value. Accounting Analysis Journal, 9(2), 131-137. https://sikenal.unnes.ac.id/
25. Le, T. P. V., & Phan, T. B. N. (2017). Capital structure and firm performance: Empirical evidence from a small transition country. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 710-726.
26. Li, K., Musah, M., Kong, Y., Adjei Mensah, I., Antwi, S. K., Bawuah, J., ... & Andrew Osei, A. (2020). Liquidity and firms’ financial performance nexus: panel evidence from non-financial firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange. Sage Open, 10(3), 2158244020950363. DOI: 10.1177/215824402095036
27. Lin, F. L. (2021). R&D investment, financial and environmental performance Nexuses via Bootstrap fourier quantiles granger causality test. Economies, 9(2), 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/
28. Lokwang, J. N., Gichure, J., & Oteki, B. E. (2018). Effects of Retained Profits on Performance of Supermarkets in Trans Nzoia County, Kenya. International Journal of Recent Research in Commerce Economics and Management, 5(2), 65-72. www.paperpublications.org
29. Ma, Y. (2019). Non-financial firms as cross‐market arbitrageurs. The Journal of Finance, 74(6), 3041-3087.
30. Mauwa, J. (2017). Determinants of Financial Performance of Firms Listed on the Rwanda Stock Exchange (Doctoral dissertation, COHRED, JKUAT).
31. McCracken, J. M. (2016). Exploratory causal analysis with time series data. Morgan & Claypool Publishers.
32. Muritala, T. A., Ijaiya, M. A., Afolabi, O. H., & Yinus, A. B. (2020). Fraud and bank performance in Nigeria–Var granger causality analysis. Financial Internet Quarterly, 16(1), 20-26. DOI: 10.2478/fiqf-2020-0003
33. Mutua, L.M. & Atheru, G.K. (2020). Capital Structure and Financial Performance of Companies listed under Manufacturing and Allied Sector at Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya. Journal of Finance and Accounting, Vol 4(1) pp. 24-38.
34. Nduati, N. W., & Wepukhulu, J. M. (2020). Effect of retained earnings on financial performance of saving and credit co-operative societies in Nairobi County, Kenya. International Academic Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(6), 197-209.
35. Nenobais, A. H., Niha, S. S., & Manafe, H. A. (2022). Pengaruh Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin (NPM) dan earning per Share (EPS) Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sistem Informasi, 4(1), 10-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31933/jemsi.v4i1
36. Oganda, A. J., Museve, E., & Mogwambo, V. A. (2022). Analysis of Retained Earnings Financing On Financial Performance of Listed Manufacturing and Allied Firms: A Dynamic Panel Approach. http://ijecm.co.uk/
37. Olarewaju, O. M., Migiro, S. O., & Sibanda, M. (2018). Dividend Payout, Retention Policy and Financial Performance in Commercial Banks: Any Causal Relationship?. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 63(1), 37-62. DOI: 10.2478/subboec-2018-0003
38. Panigrahi, C. M. A., & Vachhani, K. (2021). Financial analysis by return on equity (ROE) and return on asset (ROA)-A comparative study of HUL and ITC. Panigrahi AK, Vachhani K, Financial analysis by return on equity (ROE) and return on asset (ROA)-A comparative study of HUL and ITC. J Manag Res Anal, 8(3), 131-138. https://doi.org/10.18231/j.jmra.2021.027
39. Pibowei, W.E., Odong, N. E., & Jimoh, O. F. (2021). Impact of retained earnings on the financial performance of selected Nigerian breweries in times of crises (2012-2020). RUJMASS Journal, 7(2), 72-83.
40. Purohit, S. G. A. (2024). Debt or Retained Earnings: Whichever is Optimum for the Growth of the Firm? Russian Law Journal, 12(1).
41. Saputra, F. (2022). Analysis Effect Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and Price Earnings Ratio (PER) on Stock Prices of Coal Companies in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Period 2018-2021. Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 3(1), 82-94. ed: DOI: https://doi.org/10.38035/dijefa.v3i1
42. Shikumo, D. H., Oluoch, O., & Wepukhulu, J. M. (2023). Financial Structure, Firm Size and Financial Growth of Non-Financial Firms Listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.10910. doi: 10.11648/j.jfa.20231101.12
43. Shojaie, A., & Fox, E. B. (2022). Granger causality: A review and recent advances. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 9, 289-319. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-040120-010930
44. Thuranira, M. G. (2014). The effect of retained earnings on the returns of firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). http://hdl.handle.net/11295/74777
45. Thuranira, M. G. (2014). The effect of retained earnings on the returns of firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).
46. Verma, E. (2023, August 4). Financial Performance: Understanding the Concepts and Its Areas. Available at https://www.simplilearn.com/financial-performance-rar21-article
47. Viet, T. Q., Ngoc, L. B., Anh, T. H., Thong, P. H., & Scott, W. (2020). Study on relationship between retained earnings and firm performance: Evidence from Vietnam. Pan-Pacific Journal of Business Research, 11(1), 54-63.
48. Vo, X. V., & Ellis, C. (2017). An empirical investigation of capital structure and firm value in Vietnam. Finance Research Letters, 22, 90-94 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.10.014
49. W. (2022, July 17). Strategic Financial Management: Definition, Benefits, and Example. Available at https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/strategic-financial-management.asp
50. Yemi, A. E., & Seriki, A. I. (2018). Retained earnings and firms' market value: Nigeria experience. The Business & Management Review, 9(3), 482-496.
51. Yinusa, D. O., & Adedokun, A. (2017). Fiscal synchronisation or institutional separation: An examination of tax-spend hypothesis in Nigeria. Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5(3), 80-87. DOI: 10.12691/jfa-5-3-2
2. Abdullah, H., & Tursoy, T. (2021). Capital structure and firm performance: a panel causality test. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Available at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105871/1/MPRA_paper_105871.pdf
3. Adeniji, A. Y. (2023). Retained Earnings, Corporate Governance and Market-To-Book Value of Listed Firms in Nigeria. European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research, 11(5), 28-38. doi: https://doi.org/10.37745/ejaafr.2013/vol11n52838
4. Ahsan, M. K. (2016). Measuring financial performance based on CAMEL: A study on selected Islamic banks in Bangladesh. Asian Business Review, 6(1), 47-56.
5. Amornbunchornvej, C., Zheleva, E., & Berger-Wolf, T. (2021). Variable-lag granger causality and transfer entropy for time series analysis. ACM Transactions on Knowledge Discovery from Data (TKDD), 15(4), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1145/3441452
6. Anyanzwa, J. (2023). A quarter of NSE listed firms have negative working capital. The EastAfrican. June 13. Available at https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/a-quarter-of-nse-listed-firms-have-negative-working-capital-4268210
7. Asikin, B., Saudi, M. H., & Roespinoedji, R. (2020). Influence of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Earning per Share (EPS) of Stock Price (Survey on Corporate Advertising, Printing, and the Media listed on the Indonesia stock exchange Period 2015-2019). Solid State Technology, 63(3), 3941-3955.
8. Ball, R., Gerakos, J., Linnainmaa, J. T., & Nikolaev, V. (2020). Earnings, retained earnings, and book-to-market in the cross section of expected returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 135(1), 231-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.05.013
9. Batchimeg, B. (2017). Financial Performance Determinants of Organizations the Case of Mongolian Companies. Journal of competitiveness, 9(3). DOI: 10.7441/joc.2017.03.02
10. Cekic, S., Grandjean, D., & Renaud, O. (2018). Time, frequency, and time‐varying Granger‐causality measures in neuroscience. Statistics in medicine, 37(11), 1910-1931. DOI: 10.1002/sim.7621
11. Cerqueira, V., Torgo, L., & Mozetič, I. (2020). Evaluating time series forecasting models: An empirical study on performance estimation methods. Machine Learning, 109, 1997-2028. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-020-05910-7
12. Chvosteková, M., Jakubík, J., & Krakovská, A. (2021). Granger causality on forward and reversed time series. Entropy, 23(4), 409. https://doi.org/10.3390/e23040409
13. Dahmash, F. N., Alshurafat, H., Hendawi, R., Alzoubi, A. B., & Al Amosh, H. (2023). The retained earnings effect on the firm’s market value: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(3), 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11030089
14. Dianita, M. (2021). The Effect of Return on Assets (ROA) And Return On Equity (ROE) Towards Changes In Share Prices. Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT), 12(8), 651-657.
15. El Ammari, A., & Terzi, C. (2023). Causal Nexus between Ownership Structure, Dividend Policy and Financial Performance: A Bootstrap Panel Granger non-causality Analysis. Journal of African Business, 24(4), 562-579. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2022.2135941
16. Fatihudin, D. (2018). How measuring financial performance. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), 9(6), 553-557.
17. Galant, A., & Cadez, S. (2017). Corporate social responsibility and financial performance relationship: A review of measurement approaches. Economic research 30(1), 676-693. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1313122
18. Gathara, Z. M., Kilika, J. M., & Maingi, J. N. (2019). Effect of leverage on financial performance of selected companies listed in the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya. Int. J. Innovative Finance and Economics Res, 7(1), 10-33.
19. Gubbins & Heyre (2022). The state of financial health in Kenya: Trends, drivers, and implications: A review of why financial health has declined.
20. Hendry, D. F. (2017). Granger causality. European journal of pure and applied mathematics, 10(1), 12-29. https://www.ejpam.com/index.php/ejpam/article/view/2948
21. Jackson, C., & Orr, A. (2019). Investment decision-making under economic policy uncertainty. Journal of Property Research, 36(2), 153-185. (2). https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2019.1590454
22. Josi, A. (2018). Causal relationship between tax revenue and government expenditure in Zimbabwe (2009-2016).
23. Jouida, S. (2018). Diversification, capital structure and profitability: A panel VAR approach. Research in International Business and Finance, 45, 243-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.155
24. Kristi, N. M., & Yanto, H. (2020). The effect of financial and non-financial factors on firm value. Accounting Analysis Journal, 9(2), 131-137. https://sikenal.unnes.ac.id/
25. Le, T. P. V., & Phan, T. B. N. (2017). Capital structure and firm performance: Empirical evidence from a small transition country. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 710-726.
26. Li, K., Musah, M., Kong, Y., Adjei Mensah, I., Antwi, S. K., Bawuah, J., ... & Andrew Osei, A. (2020). Liquidity and firms’ financial performance nexus: panel evidence from non-financial firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange. Sage Open, 10(3), 2158244020950363. DOI: 10.1177/215824402095036
27. Lin, F. L. (2021). R&D investment, financial and environmental performance Nexuses via Bootstrap fourier quantiles granger causality test. Economies, 9(2), 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/
28. Lokwang, J. N., Gichure, J., & Oteki, B. E. (2018). Effects of Retained Profits on Performance of Supermarkets in Trans Nzoia County, Kenya. International Journal of Recent Research in Commerce Economics and Management, 5(2), 65-72. www.paperpublications.org
29. Ma, Y. (2019). Non-financial firms as cross‐market arbitrageurs. The Journal of Finance, 74(6), 3041-3087.
30. Mauwa, J. (2017). Determinants of Financial Performance of Firms Listed on the Rwanda Stock Exchange (Doctoral dissertation, COHRED, JKUAT).
31. McCracken, J. M. (2016). Exploratory causal analysis with time series data. Morgan & Claypool Publishers.
32. Muritala, T. A., Ijaiya, M. A., Afolabi, O. H., & Yinus, A. B. (2020). Fraud and bank performance in Nigeria–Var granger causality analysis. Financial Internet Quarterly, 16(1), 20-26. DOI: 10.2478/fiqf-2020-0003
33. Mutua, L.M. & Atheru, G.K. (2020). Capital Structure and Financial Performance of Companies listed under Manufacturing and Allied Sector at Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya. Journal of Finance and Accounting, Vol 4(1) pp. 24-38.
34. Nduati, N. W., & Wepukhulu, J. M. (2020). Effect of retained earnings on financial performance of saving and credit co-operative societies in Nairobi County, Kenya. International Academic Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(6), 197-209.
35. Nenobais, A. H., Niha, S. S., & Manafe, H. A. (2022). Pengaruh Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin (NPM) dan earning per Share (EPS) Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sistem Informasi, 4(1), 10-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31933/jemsi.v4i1
36. Oganda, A. J., Museve, E., & Mogwambo, V. A. (2022). Analysis of Retained Earnings Financing On Financial Performance of Listed Manufacturing and Allied Firms: A Dynamic Panel Approach. http://ijecm.co.uk/
37. Olarewaju, O. M., Migiro, S. O., & Sibanda, M. (2018). Dividend Payout, Retention Policy and Financial Performance in Commercial Banks: Any Causal Relationship?. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 63(1), 37-62. DOI: 10.2478/subboec-2018-0003
38. Panigrahi, C. M. A., & Vachhani, K. (2021). Financial analysis by return on equity (ROE) and return on asset (ROA)-A comparative study of HUL and ITC. Panigrahi AK, Vachhani K, Financial analysis by return on equity (ROE) and return on asset (ROA)-A comparative study of HUL and ITC. J Manag Res Anal, 8(3), 131-138. https://doi.org/10.18231/j.jmra.2021.027
39. Pibowei, W.E., Odong, N. E., & Jimoh, O. F. (2021). Impact of retained earnings on the financial performance of selected Nigerian breweries in times of crises (2012-2020). RUJMASS Journal, 7(2), 72-83.
40. Purohit, S. G. A. (2024). Debt or Retained Earnings: Whichever is Optimum for the Growth of the Firm? Russian Law Journal, 12(1).
41. Saputra, F. (2022). Analysis Effect Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE) and Price Earnings Ratio (PER) on Stock Prices of Coal Companies in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Period 2018-2021. Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 3(1), 82-94. ed: DOI: https://doi.org/10.38035/dijefa.v3i1
42. Shikumo, D. H., Oluoch, O., & Wepukhulu, J. M. (2023). Financial Structure, Firm Size and Financial Growth of Non-Financial Firms Listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.10910. doi: 10.11648/j.jfa.20231101.12
43. Shojaie, A., & Fox, E. B. (2022). Granger causality: A review and recent advances. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 9, 289-319. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-040120-010930
44. Thuranira, M. G. (2014). The effect of retained earnings on the returns of firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). http://hdl.handle.net/11295/74777
45. Thuranira, M. G. (2014). The effect of retained earnings on the returns of firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).
46. Verma, E. (2023, August 4). Financial Performance: Understanding the Concepts and Its Areas. Available at https://www.simplilearn.com/financial-performance-rar21-article
47. Viet, T. Q., Ngoc, L. B., Anh, T. H., Thong, P. H., & Scott, W. (2020). Study on relationship between retained earnings and firm performance: Evidence from Vietnam. Pan-Pacific Journal of Business Research, 11(1), 54-63.
48. Vo, X. V., & Ellis, C. (2017). An empirical investigation of capital structure and firm value in Vietnam. Finance Research Letters, 22, 90-94 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.10.014
49. W. (2022, July 17). Strategic Financial Management: Definition, Benefits, and Example. Available at https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/strategic-financial-management.asp
50. Yemi, A. E., & Seriki, A. I. (2018). Retained earnings and firms' market value: Nigeria experience. The Business & Management Review, 9(3), 482-496.
51. Yinusa, D. O., & Adedokun, A. (2017). Fiscal synchronisation or institutional separation: An examination of tax-spend hypothesis in Nigeria. Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5(3), 80-87. DOI: 10.12691/jfa-5-3-2
Published
2024-06-30
How to Cite
Agembe, A. J. (2024). Granger Causality Model of Retained Earnings and Financial Performance of Non-Financial Firms Listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), Kenya. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 20(16), 95. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2024.v20n16p95
Section
ESJ Social Sciences
Copyright (c) 2024 Akali James Agembe
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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