Impact des Fluctuations des Prix du Pétrole et du Régime de Subventions sur la Croissance Économique au Maroc : Étude Économétrique de 1998T1 à 2022T4
Abstract
Cet article analyse l'impact des fluctuations des prix du pétrole et du régime de subventions sur la croissance économique au Maroc entre le premier trimestre de 1998 et le quatrième trimestre de 2022. En appliquant une analyse économétrique aux données trimestrielles, l’étude différencie les effets linéaires et asymétriques de prix du pétrole, ainsi que l’influence du régime de subventions. Les résultats indiquent que les hausses des prix du pétrole ( exercent un impact significatif sur la croissance du PIB, tandis que les baisses ( n'ont pas un effet direct. Le régime de subventions, quant à lui, montre un effet positif et soutenant. Ces conclusions mettent en lumière l'importance de politiques de subventions pour compenser les effets des hausses de prix du pétrole, et suggèrent d’élargir l’étude à d’autres facteurs explicatifs de la croissance économique marocaine.
This article aims to analyse the impact of oil price fluctuations and the subsidy regime on Morocco’s economic growth from the first quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Through econometric analysis of quarterly data, the study distinguishes between linear and asymmetric effects of oil price changes, as well as the influence of the subsidy regime. The results indicate that increases in oil prices ( have a significant impact on GDP growth, whereas price decreases ( do not have a direct effect. The subsidy regime, on the other hand, demonstrates a positive and supportive effect. These findings underscore the importance of subsidy policies in offsetting the adverse effects of oil price increases and suggest broadening the study to other explanatory factors for Moroccan economic growth.
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