Fluctuations des Prix du Pétrole, Subventions et Croissance Économique au Maroc (1998–2022)

Hicham Saidi

doi:10.19044/esj.2025.v21n16p172

Hicham Saidi Docteur en sciences économiques et gestion de la Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Meknès, Rabat, Maroc

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2025.v21n16p172

Keywords: Fluctuations des prix du pétrole, modèles dynamiques, régime de subventions, PIB, Maroc

Abstract

Cet article analyse l’impact des fluctuations des prix du pétrole et du régime de subventions sur la croissance économique du Maroc entre le premier trimestre 1998 et le quatrième trimestre 2022. En mobilisant une modélisation dynamique appliquée aux données trimestrielles, l’étude distingue les effets linéaires et asymétriques des variations des prix du pétrole, tout en intégrant l’effet d’un régime de subventions à travers une variable dichotomique construite selon les principales phases de réforme. Les résultats montrent que les hausses des prix du pétrole ont un effet significatif sur la croissance du PIB, tandis que les baisses n’ont pas d’impact direct mesurable. Par ailleurs, le régime de subventions joue un rôle stabilisateur en atténuant l’impact des chocs pétroliers à la hausse, bien que cet effet dépende du contexte institutionnel et budgétaire, notamment avant et après la . Cette dernière, marquée par la libéralisation progressive des prix, a profondément modifié les mécanismes d’ajustement économique. Cette étude souligne ainsi l’importance des politiques de subventions dans la préservation de la stabilité économique face à la volatilité des marchés pétroliers. Toutefois, la période post-2014, marquée par la réforme de la compensation et la libéralisation progressive des prix, mérite une attention spécifique dans l’analyse des dynamiques récentes. Enfin, des perspectives de recherche pourraient consister à intégrer d’autres variables macroéconomiques telles que l’inflation, le taux de change ou encore l’ouverture commerciale, afin d’approfondir la compréhension des déterminants de la croissance économique marocaine dans un contexte de chocs externes.

This article examines the impact of oil price fluctuations and the subsidy regime on Morocco’s economic growth between the first quarter of 1998 and the fourth quarter of 2022. By employing a dynamic modeling approach on quarterly data, the study distinguishes between the linear and asymmetric effects of oil price variations, while accounting for the influence of the subsidy system through a dichotomous variable reflecting key reform phases. The results reveal that increases in oil prices have a significant effect on GDP growth, whereas price decreases do not exhibit a measurable direct impact. Moreover, the subsidy regime plays a stabilizing role by mitigating the effects of upward oil price shocks, although this impact depends on the institutional and fiscal context, particularly before and after the 2014 reform. The latter, characterized by the gradual liberalization of fuel prices, has substantially altered the economic adjustment mechanisms. This study thus highlights the crucial role of subsidy policies in preserving economic stability in the face of oil market volatility. However, the post-2014 period, marked by compensation reforms and price liberalization, warrants specific attention when analyzing recent dynamics. Future research avenues could involve incorporating additional macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates, and trade openness to further deepen the understanding of the determinants of Morocco’s economic growth in a context of external shocks.

Oui j’ai ajouté une référence en bibliographie. Cour des Comptes, (2014). Rapport sur Le système de compensation au Maroc Diagnostic et propositions de réforme. Rabat, janvier.

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