The Role of Policy Innovation in Accelerating Green Bond Markets for Renewable Energy: Evidence from Emerging Economies

  • James X. Varney Shanghai University, China
Keywords: Green bonds, Policy innovation, Renewable energy, Sustainable finance

Abstract

The transition toward renewable energy in emerging economies requires innovative financing instruments that can bridge investment gaps while ensuring sustainability. Among such instruments, green bonds have gained prominence as a critical mechanism to mobilize private and institutional capital for climate-related projects. However, the expansion of green bond markets in emerging regions such as Africa and Asia has faced structural and institutional constraints. This review article investigates the role of policy innovation in accelerating green bond markets for renewable energy, focusing on evidence from emerging economies. By systematically integrating insights from more than 80 academic and policy sources, the paper provides a comprehensive framework that links policy innovation, institutional capacity, market maturity, and renewable energy financing to the expansion of green bond issuance.

The study adopts a multi-method empirical synthesis, including descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, fixed effects regression, feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), and dynamic panel two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM). These approaches are complemented with robustness checks, sensitivity analyses, and sub-sample evaluations covering the 2007–2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021). The results demonstrate that policy innovation exerts a strong positive effect on green bond issuance, both directly and indirectly, by strengthening institutional capacity, enhancing sovereign green bond credibility, and improving renewable energy financing channels. Furthermore, the analysis confirms that policy-driven instruments moderate the adverse effects of crises, thereby safeguarding renewable energy investment flows even during systemic shocks.

Key findings reveal that: (i) policy innovation significantly improves the attractiveness and credibility of green bond markets; (ii) institutional capacity and governance quality serve as mediating and moderating channels; (iii) green bond issuance contributes to renewable energy expansion and long-term market maturity; and (iv) external shocks such as financial crises and pandemics reshape but do not eliminate the positive role of innovative policies. The study also highlights important regional contrasts, with Asia displaying faster institutional adaptation and Africa requiring greater regulatory harmonization to unlock potential.

This review contributes to both theory and practice by advancing a theoretical framework that integrates policy innovation with green finance and by offering empirical evidence that underscores the importance of regulatory adaptability in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Policy implications emphasize the need for governments to design flexible, transparent, and credible green bond policies, while investors are encouraged to align portfolios with climate-resilient assets. The paper concludes that green bonds, underpinned by robust policy innovation, can serve as catalytic tools for financing renewable energy transitions in emerging economies.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

References

1. Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., Bursztyn, L., & Hemous, D. (2012). The environment and directed technical change. American Economic Review, 102(1), 131–166.
2. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369–1401.
3. Allen, F., & Carletti, E. (2013). The global financial crisis: Lessons for European integration. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(s2), 59–80.
4. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297.
5. Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51.
6. ASEAN Capital Markets Forum. (2018). ASEAN Green Bond Standards. Kuala Lumpur: ACMF.
7. Bachelet, M. J., Becchetti, L., & Manfredonia, S. (2019). The green bonds premium puzzle. Journal of Banking & Finance, 98, 192–208.
8. Baker, M., Bergstresser, D., Serafeim, G., & Wurgler, J. (2018). Financing the response to climate change: The pricing and ownership of U.S. green bonds. NBER Working Paper No. 25194.
9. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636.
10. Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (4th ed.). Wiley.
11. Banga, J. (2019). The green bond market: A potential source of climate finance for developing countries. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 9(1), 17–32.
12. Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182.
13. Beck, N., & Katz, J. N. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634–647.
14. Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2000). A new database on financial development and structure. World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 597–605.
15. Bhattacharya, A., Kharas, H., McArthur, J., & Ohno, I. (2022). What drives green bond issuance in developing countries? Climate Policy, 22(5), 619–635.
16. BIS (Ehlers, T., & Packer, F.). (2017). Green bond finance and certification. BIS Quarterly Review, September.
17. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143.
18. BloombergNEF. (2022). Sustainable debt market outlook. New York: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
19. Broadstock, D. C., & Cheng, L. T. W. (2019). Time–frequency dynamics of green bond and financial markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 63, 1–15.
20. Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press.
21. CBI (Climate Bonds Initiative). (2023). Green bonds global state of the market 2022. London: CBI.
22. Claessens, S., Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D., & Laeven, L. (2010). Lessons and policy implications from the global financial crisis. IMF Working Paper 10/44.
23. D’Orazio, P., & Dirks, N. (2020). Financing sustainable development: The role of green bonds. Sustainability, 12(11), 4389.
24. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2008). Finance, financial sector policies, and long-run growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4469.
25. Dorfleitner, G., Utz, S., Zhang, R., & Wimmer, M. (2021). Are green bonds priced differently? Review of Managerial Science, 15(4), 1417–1452.
26. Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–560.
27. Ehlers, T., Mojon, B., & Packer, F. (2021). Green bonds and carbon emissions. BIS Quarterly Review, September.
28. EIB. (2019). Sustainability Awareness Bonds Framework. Luxembourg: European Investment Bank.
29. Eyraud, L., Clements, B., & Wane, A. (2013). Green investment: Obstacles and solutions. IMF Working Paper 13/193.
30. Fatica, S., & Panzica, R. (2021). Green bonds as a tool against climate change? Journal of Financial Stability, 54, 100873.
31. Flammer, C. (2021). Corporate green bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 499–516.
32. Gatzert, N., & Kosub, T. (2016). Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60, 982–998.
33. Gianfrate, G., & Peri, M. (2019). The green advantage: Exploring the “green bond premium.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 219, 127–135.
34. Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Pearson.
35. Hachenberg, B., & Schiereck, D. (2018). Are green bonds priced differently? Journal of Asset Management, 19(6), 371–383.
36. Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271.
37. Hayes, A. F. (2013). Introduction to Mediation, Moderation, and Conditional Process Analysis. Guilford.
38. Howlett, M. (2019). Designing public policies (2nd ed.). Routledge.
39. IMF. (2021). World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries. Washington, DC: IMF.
40. IMF. (2022). World Economic Outlook Update. Washington, DC: IMF.
41. IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5). Geneva: IPCC.
42. IPCC. (2021). AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC.
43. IRENA. (2018). Global energy transformation: A roadmap to 2050. Abu Dhabi: IRENA.
44. Iyke, B. N. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty in times of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101454.
45. Jacobsson, S., & Johnson, A. (2000). The diffusion of renewable energy technology. Energy Policy, 28(9), 625–640.
46. Karpf, A., & Mandel, A. (2018). The changing structure of green bonds. Energy Economics, 72, 145–158.
47. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5430.
48. King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717–737.
49. Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33–50.
50. Kose, M. A., Nagle, P., Ohnsorge, F., & Sugawara, N. (2020). Global Waves of Debt. World Bank.
51. Krishnamurthy, A., Nagel, S., & Vissing-Jørgensen, A. (2018). ECB policies involving government bond purchases. Review of Finance, 22(1), 1–44.
52. Krüger, P. (2015). Corporate goodness and shareholder wealth. Journal of Financial Economics, 115(2), 304–329.
53. La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113–1155.
54. Larcker, D. F., & Watts, E. M. (2020). Where’s the greenium? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 69(2–3), 101312.
55. Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (Vol. 1A, pp. 865–934). Elsevier.
56. Machado, J. A. F., & Santos Silva, J. M. C. (2019). Quantiles via moments. Journal of Econometrics, 213(1), 145–173.
57. Mazzucato, M. (2018). Mission-oriented research & innovation in the European Union. European Commission.
58. Meckling, J., Kelsey, N., Biber, E., & Zysman, J. (2015). Winning coalitions for climate policy. Science, 349(6253), 1170–1171.
59. Naeem, M. A., Farid, S., Ferrer, R., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2021). Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bond markets. Energy Economics, 94, 105060.
60. Narayan, P. K., Phan, D. H. B., & Liu, G. (2021). COVID-19 lockdowns, stimulus policies, and stock market liquidity. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101732.
61. Nguyen, T., Bui, T. N., & Vo, X. V. (2022). Policy innovation and green bond issuance. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 12(3), 205–224.
62. North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press.
63. OECD. (2020). Sovereign green, social and sustainability bonds. Paris: OECD.
64. OECD. (2021). Green recovery policies: Policy responses to COVID-19. Paris: OECD.
65. Pastor, L., & Stambaugh, R. F. (2003). Liquidity risk and expected stock returns. Journal of Political Economy, 111(3), 642–685.
66. Parks, R. W. (1967). Efficient estimation with a priori information when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62(318), 500–509.
67. Pedersen, L. H., Fitzgibbons, S., & Pomorski, L. (2021). Responsible investing: The ESG-efficient frontier. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 572–597.
68. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper No. 1229.
69. Pham, L. (2016). Is it risky to go green? A volatility analysis of green bonds. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 6(4), 263–291.
70. Polzin, F. (2017). Mobilizing private finance for low-carbon innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 123, 130–141.
71. REN21. (2022). Renewables 2022 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21.
72. Reboredo, J. C. (2018). Green bond and financial markets: Co-movement and hedging. Energy Economics, 74, 38–50.
73. Reboredo, J. C., & Ugolini, A. (2020). Price connectedness between green and brown bonds. Energy Economics, 88, 104736.
74. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time Is Different. Princeton University Press.
75. Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations (5th ed.). Free Press.
76. Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press.
77. Stiglitz, J. E., & Stern, N. (2017). Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices. Washington, DC: World Bank.
78. Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., & Yoshino, N. (2019). The way to induce private participation in green finance. Finance Research Letters, 27, 385–389.
79. Tang, D. Y., & Zhang, Y. (2020). Do shareholders benefit from green bonds? Journal of Corporate Finance, 61, 101427.
80. Tolliver, C., Keeley, A. R., & Managi, S. (2020). Policy targets behind green bonds for renewable energy. Energy Policy, 140, 111375.
81. UNCTAD. (2021). World Investment Report 2021: Investing in Sustainable Recovery. Geneva: UNCTAD.
82. UNDP. (2022). SDG Finance Taxonomy Guidance. New York: UNDP.
83. van der Ploeg, F., & de Zeeuw, A. (2014). Climate policy and the risk of catastrophic events. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(4), 944–985.
84. Wang, Y., Zhi, Q., & Zhang, Y. (2020). Policy and issuer drivers of national green bond markets. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 134, 110335.
85. WGI (World Bank). (2022). Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues. Washington, DC: World Bank.
86. Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
87. World Bank. (2015). Green bond impact report. Washington, DC: World Bank.
88. Zerbib, O. D. (2019). The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds. Journal of Banking & Finance, 98, 39–60.
89. Zhang, D., & Broadstock, D. C. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101528.
90. Zhang, H., & Zhang, J. (2022). Institutional quality and green bond development. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 12(4), 362–380.
91. African Development Bank. (2021). Green bond program: Impact report. Abidjan: AfDB.
92. ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum. (2020). ASEAN+3 Multi-Currency Bond Issuance Framework (AMBIF). Tokyo: ADBI.
93. Asian Development Bank. (2021). Green Finance Strategies in Asia. Manila: ADB.
94. Berg, F., Kölbel, J., & Rigobon, R. (2022). Aggregate confusion: The divergence of ESG ratings. Review of Finance, 26(6), 1315–1356.
95. CBI & Nigeria DMO. (2018). Nigeria Sovereign Green Bond: Post-Issuance Report. Abuja: DMO.
96. China People’s Bank (PBoC). (2015). Green Bond Endorsed Project Catalogue. Beijing: PBoC.
97. Cochu, A., et al. (2016). Study on the potential of green bond finance for resource-efficient investments. European Commission.
98. De Haas, R., & Popov, A. (2019). Finance and carbon emissions. ECB Working Paper 2318.
99. G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group. (2021). G20 Sustainable Finance Roadmap. Rome: G20.
100. Gianfrate, G., Karpf, A., & Yafeh, Y. (2021). A note on the greenium in sovereign bonds. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102–128.
101. He, G., & Mol, A. P. J. (2010). China’s green credit policy. Environmental Development, 1(1), 24–38.
102. IEA. (2021). Financing Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging and Developing Economies. Paris: IEA.
103. IFC. (2020). Green Bond Market: 10 Years of Progress. Washington, DC: IFC.
104. Kling, G., Lo, Y. C., Murinde, V., & Volz, U. (2021). Climate vulnerability and the cost of debt. World Development, 137, 105158.
105. Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F., & Sugawara, N. (2022). Debt and Growth after the Pandemic. World Bank.
106. Löffler, K., Petreski, A., & Stephan, A. (2021). Drivers of green bond issuance. Energy Economics, 97, 105188.
107. MacAskill, S., Roca, E., Liu, B., Stewart, R. A., & Sahin, O. (2021). Is there a green premium in the bond market? Journal of Cleaner Production, 280, 124491.
108. Mishkin, F. S. (2010). Over the cliff: From the subprime to the global financial crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(1), 49–70.
109. Moody’s Investors Service. (2020). Sustainable finance—Global: 2020 review and 2021 outlook. New York: Moody’s.
110. Nguyen, Q. T., & Tran, V. T. (2021). Green bond market development in ASEAN. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 11(3), 223–241.
111. OECD. (2022). Infrastructure for a low-carbon future. Paris: OECD.
112. Partridge, C., & Medda, F. (2020). Green bond pricing and premium. Energy Economics, 88, 104726.
113. PwC. (2020). The growth opportunity of green bonds in Africa. Johannesburg: PwC.
114. REN21. (2023). Renewables Global Status Report. Paris: REN21.
115. Sachs, J., Woo, W. T., Yoshino, N., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2019). Why is green finance important? ADB Institute Working Paper 917.
116. Shahzad, S. J. H., Naeem, M. A., Peng, Z., & Bouri, E. (2021). Dynamic connectedness of green and conventional bond markets. Journal of Cleaner Production, 319, 128–595.
117. Stanton, E. A., & Ackerman, F. (2009). Climate risks and investment. Energy Policy, 37(10), 4062–4068.
118. Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., & Phoumin, H. (2021). Sustainable finance in Asia. Energy Policy, 149, 112–118.
119. UNEP FI. (2021). Demystifying Sovereign ESG. Geneva: UNEP FI.
120. Volz, U. (2018). Fostering green financial systems in developing countries. German Development Institute Discussion Paper.
121. Wang, Q., & Zhi, Q. (2016). The role of green finance for sustainable development. Sustainability, 8(8), 1–18.
122. World Bank. (2020). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank.
123. Zhang, Y., Liu, J., & Zhang, H. (2021). Green bonds, governance and financial performance. Journal of Cleaner Production, 278, 123–643.
124. Zou, H., & Zhao, R. (2022). Do green bonds promote renewable energy investment? Energy Economics, 112, 106–134.
Published
2025-09-07
How to Cite
Varney, J. X. (2025). The Role of Policy Innovation in Accelerating Green Bond Markets for Renewable Energy: Evidence from Emerging Economies. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 45, 36. Retrieved from https://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/article/view/19997
Section
ESI Preprints