Impact de la dynamique des exportations sur la qualité des infrastructures de transport en Afrique subsaharienne
Abstract
L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer l’impact de la dynamique des exportations sur la qualité des infrastructures de transport dans 32 pays d’Afrique subsaharienne sur la période 2009–2019. Pour ce faire, un modèle ARDL dynamique de panel a été utilisé. Des tests préliminaires, notamment ceux de Pédroni (2004) et Westerlund (2007), ont révélé l’existence d’une relation de cointégration à long terme entre les séries considérées. Les résultats montrent que les coefficients estimés sur les exportations et sur le taux de croissance du PIB sont positifs et statistiquement significatifs à la fois à court et à long terme. Par ailleurs, à long terme, les indicateurs institutionnels, tels que la stabilité politique et le contrôle de la corruption, exercent un impact positif et significatif sur l’indice de qualité des infrastructures (routes, aéroports et ports). L’utilisation de méthodes d’estimation complémentaires, telles que les moindres carrés entièrement modifiés (FMOLS) et les moindres carrés ordinaires dynamiques (DOLS), a permis de confirmer la robustesse des résultats. Ces conclusions suggèrent que la croissance des exportations, lorsqu’elle est accompagnée d’institutions solides, contribue significativement à l’amélioration de la qualité des infrastructures de transport en Afrique subsaharienne, soulignant ainsi le rôle des échanges commerciaux et de la gouvernance dans le développement des infrastructures.
This article examines the impact of export dynamics on the quality of transport infrastructure in 32 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2009–2019. The analysis is conducted within the framework of a dynamic panel ARDL model. Preliminary cointegration tests, namely those of Pedroni (2004) and Westerlund (2007), confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The empirical results reveal that exports and GDP growth exert positive and statistically significant effects on infrastructure quality both in the short and long run. In addition, institutional factors, particularly political stability and control of corruption, are found to enhance infrastructure quality in the long run. Robustness checks performed using fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) corroborate these findings. The evidence suggests that sustained export growth, when accompanied by strong institutional frameworks, plays a crucial role in improving the quality of transport infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa. These results highlight the complementary role of trade expansion and governance in fostering infrastructure development.
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