Navigating Strategic Waters: Hydropolitical Disputes and Pathways to Peace in South Asia’s Indus and GangesBrahmaputra River Basins

Nelofar Ikram

doi:10.19044/esj.2026.v22n37p57

Nelofar Ikram Department of Political Science, Women University Mardan, Pakistan ESI Post-Doctoral Fellow (2025-26)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2026.v22n37p57

Keywords: Hydropolitics, Indus Waters Treaty, Ganges-Brahmaputra, IndiaPakistan, India-Bangladesh, climate change, water disputes, peacebuilding, data transparency, South Asia

Abstract

South Asia’s Indus and Ganges-Brahmaputra river basins, vital for over 1.9 billion people across India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, are flashpoints for hydropolitical conflicts driven by geopolitical tensions, competing water demands, and climate change. India’s 2025 suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) amid the Kashmir dispute has disrupted data-sharing and arbitration, escalating India-Pakistan tensions. Concurrently, India-Bangladesh disputes persist over the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty’s 2026 expiration, the unresolved Teesta River issue, and China’s upstream Brahmaputra damming. Secondary data from policy documents, diplomatic records (2015–2025), hydrological reports, and academic literature indicate that 68% of stakeholders support regional cooperation, yet mistrust and India’s upstream dominance hinder progress. Climate change, with glacial melt and erratic monsoons, exacerbates water insecurity. This study advocates for neutral mediation, data transparency, and climate-resilient governance, with targeted peacebuilding strategies for India-Pakistan and India-Bangladesh, to transform conflicts into cooperative opportunities. Without urgent diplomatic efforts, these disputes pose a threat to regional stability. This study is primarily based on a thematic analysis approach and incorporates discourse where relevant. Drawing on scholarly insights, principal findings reveal the potential of environmental peacebuilding, joint data sharing, and regional platforms to transform water conflicts into opportunities for collaboration.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

PlumX Statistics

References

1. Akhtar, M., Ahmad, N., & Booij, M. J. (2008). The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios. Journal of Hydrology, 355(1–4), 148–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.015
2. Chellaney, B. (2021). Water, peace, and war: Confronting the global water crisis. Rowman & Littlefield.
3. Dawn. (2025, January 15). India suspends Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan warns of response. https://www.dawn.com
4. European Foundation for South Asian Studies. (n.d.). Transboundary river management in Bangladesh and India: Bilateral cooperation and environmental securitization. EFSAS. https://www.efsas.org/publications/study-papers/transboundary-river-management-in-bangladesh-and-india/
5. Fowler, H. J., & Archer, D. R. (2006). Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate, 19(17), 4276–4293. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3860.1
6. Hossain, M. A., Hanasz, M., & Furuya, K. (2022). Transboundary water governance in South Asia: A case study of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. Journal of Environmental Management, 305, 114354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114354
7. ICIMOD. (2024). Hindu Kush Himalayan snow update 2024. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. https://www.icimod.org
8. Image 1. O0BDa8RLweyWjB2FfK4VQFMRTKtMghR1q2Dv6ESt.png (456×438)
9. Image 2. Ganges Basin - Wikipedia
10. India - Rivers, Ganges, Brahmaputra | Britannica
11. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). (2024, April 18). Collaborative approaches to water governance in Indus, the Ganga and the Brahmaputra basin. India Water Portal. https://www.indiawaterportal.org/governance-and-policy/governance/collaborative-approaches-water-governance-indus-ganga-and-brahmaputra-basin
12. IPCC. (2023). Sixth assessment report: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch
13. IWMI. (2023). Water security in South Asia: Challenges and opportunities. International Water Management Institute. https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org
14. Khattak, M. S., Babel, M. S., & Sharif, M. (2011). Hydro-meteorological trends in the Upper Indus River basin in Pakistan. Climate Research, 46, 103–119. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00957
15. Kumar, P., & Singh, R. D. (2022). Global water security and Sustainable Development Goal 6: Challenges and opportunities. Applied Water Science, 12(3), Article 46. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42398-022-00246-5
16. Ma, Y., & Song, T. (2024). A bibliometric review and interdisciplinary analysis of the Brahmaputra River. Water, 16(21), Article 3115. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16213115
17. Nepal, S., & Shrestha, A. B. (2015). Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins: A review of the literature. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 31(2), 201–218. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2015.1030494
18. Rasool, G., Ahmad, S., & Khan, A. A. (n.d.). Water resources of the Indus River system. In M. Qasim Jan (Ed.), Geology of the Indus River Basin (Chapter 3). National Centre of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar. https://nceg.uop.edu.pk/books/indusbook/3Rasool%20et%20al,%20Water%20resources%20of%20IR.pdf
19. Singh, P., & Bengtsson, L. (2004). Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change. Hydrological Processes, 18(13), 2363–2385. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1468
20. Wiltshire, A. J. (2014). Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region. The Cryosphere, 8(3), 941–958. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014
21. United Nations Office for Sustainable Development. (n.d.). Pakistan: SDG 6 status report. https://unosd.un.org/sites/unosd.un.org/files/pakistan_sdg_6.pdf