Impact de la dynamique des exportations sur la qualité des infrastructures de transport en Afrique subsaharienne
Keywords:
Infrastructures de transport, Exportations, ARDL en panel
Abstract
L’objectif de cette recherche est d’évaluer l’impact de la dynamique des exportations sur la qualité des infrastructures de transport dans 32 pays d’Afrique subsaharienne sur la période 2009–2019. Pour ce faire, un modèle ARDL (AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) dynamique de panel a été utilisé. Des tests préliminaires, notamment ceux de Pédroni (2004) et Westerlund (2007), ont révélé l’existence d’une relation de cointégration à long terme entre les séries considérées. Les résultats montrent que les coefficients estimés sur les exportations et sur le taux de croissance du PIB sont positifs et statistiquement significatifs à la fois à court et à long terme. Par ailleurs, à long terme, les indicateurs institutionnels, tels que la stabilité politique et le contrôle de la corruption, exercent un impact positif et significatif sur l’indice de qualité des infrastructures (routes, aéroports et ports). En outre, l’utilisation des méthodes d’estimation complémentaires, telles que les moindres carrés entièrement modifiés (FMOLS) et les moindres carrés ordinaires dynamiques (DOLS), a permis de confirmer la robustesse des résultats. Ces résultats indiquent que la croissance des exportations contribue de manière significative à l’amélioration de la qualité des infrastructures de transport en Afrique subsaharienne. Cet effet est d’autant plus marqué lorsqu’elle s’accompagne d’institutions solides, soulignant ainsi le rôle central des échanges commerciaux et de la gouvernance dans le développement des infrastructures.
This article examines the impact of export dynamics on the quality of transport infrastructure in 32 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2009–2019. The analysis is conducted within the framework of a dynamic panel ARDL model. Preliminary cointegration tests, namely those of Pedroni (2004) and Westerlund (2007), confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The empirical results reveal that exports and GDP growth exert positive and statistically significant effects on infrastructure quality both in the short and long run. In addition, institutional factors, particularly political stability and control of corruption, are found to enhance infrastructure quality in the long run. Robustness checks performed using fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) corroborate these findings. The evidence suggests that sustained export growth, when accompanied by strong institutional frameworks, plays a crucial role in improving the quality of transport infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa. These results highlight the complementary role of trade expansion and governance in fostering infrastructure development.
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References
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38. Krugman, P. (1980), Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade. The American Economic Review, 70(5), 950-959.
39. Limao, N., & Venables, A. J. (2001), Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, transport costs, and trade. The world bank economic review, 15(3), 451-479.
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42. Matthee, M., & Naudé, W. (2008), The determinants of regional manufactured exports from a developing country. International Regional Science Review, 31(4), 343-358.
43. Melo, P. C., Graham, D. J., & Brage-Ardao, R. (2013), The productivity of transport infrastructure investment: A meta-analysis of empirical evidence. Regional science and urban economics, 43(5), 695-706.
44. Munim, Z. H., & Schramm, H. J. (2018), The impacts of port infrastructure and logistics performance on economic growth: the mediating role of seaborne trade. Journal of Shipping and Trade, 3(1), 1-19.
45. N’Guessan N. (2010), Taux de fret maritime et surcharge : quelles incidences sur le commerce international et le développement des pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne ? 5ème journée du chargeur africain, Luanda, 29-30 novembr
46. Nicolini, R. (2003). Infrastructure and growth in the European Union. European Economic Review, 47(3), 401–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00213-4
47. Nordås, H. K., & Piermartini, R. (2004), Infrastructure and Trade. World Trade Organization–Economic Research and Statistics Division.
48. North, D. C. (1994), Institutions matter. Economic History, 9411004, 361.
49. Observatoire Europe-Afrique (2020) Port Performance and Maritime Connectivity in Africa.
Observatoire Europe-Afrique, Paris.
50. Pedroni, P. (2004), Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric theory, 20(3), 597-625.
51. Pedroni, P. (1996). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels and the case of purchasing power parity. Indiana University Working Papers in Economics, No. 96-020.
52. Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995), The role of theory in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 67(1), 61-79.
53. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1997), Pooled estimation of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panels.
54. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999), Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
55. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
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57. Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990), Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The review of economic studies, 57(1), 99-125.
58. Pérez, A., & Wilson, J. (2010), Export performance and trade facilitation reform: Hard and soft infrastructure. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5261. doi:10.1596/1813-9450-5261
59. Ram, R. (1987), Exports and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from time-series and cross-section data. Economic development and cultural change, 36(1), 51-72.
60. Rahman, M. M., Shadat, W. B., & Das, N. C. (2021). Trade infrastructure and export performance: Evidence from Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 72, 101265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101265
61. Rehman, F. U., Noman, A. A., & Ding, Y. (2020), Does infrastructure increase exports and reduce trade deficit? Evidence from selected South Asian countries using a new Global Infrastructure Index. Journal of Economic Structures, 9, 1-23.
62. Roberts, M. J., & Tybout, J. R. (1997). The decision to export in Colombia: An empirical model of entry with sunk costs. American Economic Review, 87(4), 545–564.
63. Robinson, J. A. (2008). Economic development and institutions. Annual Review of Economics, 1, 1–30.
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.142815
64. Romer, C. D. (1986), Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?. The American Economic Review, 76(3), 314-334.
65. Schwab, K. (2018, October), The global competitiveness report 2018. World Economic Forum.
66. Utku-İsmihan, F. M. (2019), Knowledge, technological convergence and economic growth: a dynamic panel data analysis of Middle East and North Africa and Latin America. Quality & Quantity, 53(2), 713-733.
67. Straub, S. (2008), Infrastructure and growth in developing countries: Recent advances and research challenges. World Bank policy research working paper, (4460).
68. Union africaine (2014). Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). Commission de l’Union africaine, Addis-Abeba.
69. Westerlund, J. (2007), Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69, 709–749.
70. Zergawu, Y. Z., Walle, Y. M., & Giménez-Gómez, J. M. (2020), The joint impact of infrastructure and institutions on economic growth. Journal of Institutional Economics, 16(4), 481-502.
2. ACF (2020) ACF : Africa Container Freight Index / Africa Container Port Statistics (souvent utilisé par la Banque Africaine de Développement et la CEA).
3. Agénor, P. R., & Neanidis, K. C. (2011), The allocation of public expenditure and economic growth. The Manchester School, 79(4), 899-931.
4. Albarran, P., Carrasco, R., & Holl, A. (2013), Domestic transport infrastructure and firms’ export market participation. Small Business Economics, 40, 879-898.
5. Amendolagine, V., Presbitero, A. F., Rabellotti, R., & Sanfilippo, M. (2019), Local sourcing in developing countries: The role of foreign direct investments and global value chains. World Development, 113, 73-88.
6. Artuc, E., Iootty, M., Pirlea, A. F., & Iootty De Paiva Dias, M. (2014), Export performance and geography in Croatia. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (6999).
7. Aschauer, D. A. (1989), Public investment and productivity growth in the Group of Seven. Economic perspectives, 13(5), 17-25.
8. BAD (2014). Infrastructure Development in Africa: Enhancing Productivity and Growth. Banque Africaine de Développement (BAD), Abidjan.
9. Banque Africaine de Développement (BAD) (2019). African Economic Outlook 2019: Infrastructure and Logistics Performance in North Africa. Banque Africaine de Développement, Abidjan.
10. Banque mondiale (2017). Africa’s Pulse: An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa’s Economic Future.
Banque mondiale, Washington, DC.
11. Banque mondiale (2018). Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD): Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa. Banque mondiale, Washington, DC.
12. BARRO, R. (1990), Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98, 103–126.
13. Becchetti, L., & Rossi, S. P. (2000), EU and Non EU Export Performance of Italian Firms. Is There an Industrial District Effect?. In The Competitive advantage of Industrial Districts: theoretical and empirical analysis (pp. 127-148). Physica-Verlag HD.
14. Behar, A., Nelson, B., & Manners, P. (2009), Exports and Logistics.
15. Bensassi, S., Márquez-Ramos, L., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Suárez-Burguet, C. (2015), Relationship between logistics infrastructure and trade: Evidence from Spanish regional exports. Transportation research part A: policy and practice, 72, 47-61.
16. Bruinsma, F., Nijkamp, P., & Rietveld, P. (1989), Employment impacts of infrastructure investments: A case study for the Netherlands. In K. Peschel (Ed.), Infrastructure and the space-economy (pp. 209–226). Berlin: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-75571-2_1
17. Button, K., & Yuan, J. (2013), Airfreight transport and economic development: An examination of causality. Urban studies, 50(2), 329-340
18. Celbis, G., Nijkamp, P., & Poot, J. (2014), Infrastructure and trade: A meta-analysis. Region, 1(1), 25-64.
19. Ciżkowicz, P., Rzońca, A., & Umiński, S. (2013), The determinants of regional exports in Poland–a panel data analysis. Post-Communist Economies, 25(2), 206-224.
20. CEA (2016) CEA : Commission Économique pour l’Afrique (Nations Unies).
21. CNUCED (2018). Review of Maritime Transport 2018. Conférence des Nations Unies sur le Commerce et le Développement (CNUCED), Nations Unies, Genève.
22. Coşar, A. K., & Demir, B. (2016), Domestic road infrastructure and international trade: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Development Economics, 118, 232-244.
23. ESCRIBANO, A., L. J. GUASCH et J. PENA (2010), Assessing the impact of infrastructure quality on firm productivity in Africa: Cross-country comparisons based on investment climate surveys from 1999 to 2005 », Document de Travail, Banque mondiale
24. Eustace, A., & M. Fay (2007), Current debates on infrastructure policy, World Bank Policy Research Working paper 4410, November.
25. Feenstra, R.C. (2004), Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeto
26. Forum économique mondial (2019). The Global Competitiveness Report 2019. World Economic Forum, Genève.
27. Foster, V., & Briceño-Garmendia, C. (2010), Africa's infrastructure: a time for transformation. World Bank.
28. Fujita, M., Krugman, P. R., & Venables, A. (2001), The spatial economy: Cities, regions, and international trade. MIT press.
29. Fujita, M., & Mori, T. (2005), Frontiers of the new economic geography. Papers in Regional Science, 84(3), 377-405.
30. Habib, A., Rehman, J. U., Zafar, T., & Mahmood, H. (2016), Does sustainability hypothesis hold in developed countries? A panel co-integration analysis. Quality & Quantity, 50, 1-25.
31. Helpman E, Krugman PR (1985), Market structure and foreign trade. Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. MIT Press, Cambridge
32. Hoekman, B., & Nicita, A. (2010), Assessing the Doha Round: Market access, transactions costs and aid for trade facilitation. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 19(1), 65-79.
33. Iwanow, T., & Kirkpatrick, C. (2009), Trade facilitation and manufactured exports: Is Africa different?. World Development, 37(6), 1039-1050.
34. Kirubi, C., Jacobson, A., Kammen, D. M., & Mills, A. (2009), Community-based electric micro-grids can contribute to rural development: evidence from Kenya. World development, 37(7), 1208-1221.
35. Kodongo, O., & Ojah, K. (2016), Does infrastructure really explain economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa?. Review of Development Finance, 6(2), 105-125
36. Konishi, H. (2000). Formation of hub cities: Transportation cost advantage and population agglomeration. Journal of Urban Economics, 48(1), 1–28.
37. Krugman, P. R. (1993), What do undergrads need to know about trade?. The American Economic Review, 83(2), 23-26.
38. Krugman, P. (1980), Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade. The American Economic Review, 70(5), 950-959.
39. Limao, N., & Venables, A. J. (2001), Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, transport costs, and trade. The world bank economic review, 15(3), 451-479.
40. Loayza, N., & Ranciere, R. (2004), inancial development, financial fragility. and Growth‖, Working Paper no WPS3431, Washington DC: World Bank.
41. Lucas. R.E.• Jr.• 1988. "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," forthcoming in Journal of Monetary Economics.
42. Matthee, M., & Naudé, W. (2008), The determinants of regional manufactured exports from a developing country. International Regional Science Review, 31(4), 343-358.
43. Melo, P. C., Graham, D. J., & Brage-Ardao, R. (2013), The productivity of transport infrastructure investment: A meta-analysis of empirical evidence. Regional science and urban economics, 43(5), 695-706.
44. Munim, Z. H., & Schramm, H. J. (2018), The impacts of port infrastructure and logistics performance on economic growth: the mediating role of seaborne trade. Journal of Shipping and Trade, 3(1), 1-19.
45. N’Guessan N. (2010), Taux de fret maritime et surcharge : quelles incidences sur le commerce international et le développement des pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne ? 5ème journée du chargeur africain, Luanda, 29-30 novembr
46. Nicolini, R. (2003). Infrastructure and growth in the European Union. European Economic Review, 47(3), 401–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00213-4
47. Nordås, H. K., & Piermartini, R. (2004), Infrastructure and Trade. World Trade Organization–Economic Research and Statistics Division.
48. North, D. C. (1994), Institutions matter. Economic History, 9411004, 361.
49. Observatoire Europe-Afrique (2020) Port Performance and Maritime Connectivity in Africa.
Observatoire Europe-Afrique, Paris.
50. Pedroni, P. (2004), Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric theory, 20(3), 597-625.
51. Pedroni, P. (1996). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels and the case of purchasing power parity. Indiana University Working Papers in Economics, No. 96-020.
52. Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995), The role of theory in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 67(1), 61-79.
53. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1997), Pooled estimation of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panels.
54. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999), Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
55. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
56. Pérez, R., & Wilson, J. S. (2012). Export performance and trade facilitation reform: Hard and soft infrastructure. World Development, 40(7), 1295–1307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.12.002
57. Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990), Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The review of economic studies, 57(1), 99-125.
58. Pérez, A., & Wilson, J. (2010), Export performance and trade facilitation reform: Hard and soft infrastructure. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5261. doi:10.1596/1813-9450-5261
59. Ram, R. (1987), Exports and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from time-series and cross-section data. Economic development and cultural change, 36(1), 51-72.
60. Rahman, M. M., Shadat, W. B., & Das, N. C. (2021). Trade infrastructure and export performance: Evidence from Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 72, 101265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101265
61. Rehman, F. U., Noman, A. A., & Ding, Y. (2020), Does infrastructure increase exports and reduce trade deficit? Evidence from selected South Asian countries using a new Global Infrastructure Index. Journal of Economic Structures, 9, 1-23.
62. Roberts, M. J., & Tybout, J. R. (1997). The decision to export in Colombia: An empirical model of entry with sunk costs. American Economic Review, 87(4), 545–564.
63. Robinson, J. A. (2008). Economic development and institutions. Annual Review of Economics, 1, 1–30.
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.142815
64. Romer, C. D. (1986), Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?. The American Economic Review, 76(3), 314-334.
65. Schwab, K. (2018, October), The global competitiveness report 2018. World Economic Forum.
66. Utku-İsmihan, F. M. (2019), Knowledge, technological convergence and economic growth: a dynamic panel data analysis of Middle East and North Africa and Latin America. Quality & Quantity, 53(2), 713-733.
67. Straub, S. (2008), Infrastructure and growth in developing countries: Recent advances and research challenges. World Bank policy research working paper, (4460).
68. Union africaine (2014). Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). Commission de l’Union africaine, Addis-Abeba.
69. Westerlund, J. (2007), Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69, 709–749.
70. Zergawu, Y. Z., Walle, Y. M., & Giménez-Gómez, J. M. (2020), The joint impact of infrastructure and institutions on economic growth. Journal of Institutional Economics, 16(4), 481-502.
Published
2026-01-31
How to Cite
Tall, A., Niang, B. B., Fall, N., & Dieng, O. (2026). Impact de la dynamique des exportations sur la qualité des infrastructures de transport en Afrique subsaharienne. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 22(1), 138. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2026.v22n1p138
Section
ESJ Social Sciences
Copyright (c) 2026 Abdarahmane Tall, Birahim Bouna Niang, Ndiack Fall, Ousmane Dieng
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
