La survie des filières africaines sur les marchés d’exportation
Abstract
La présente étude examine les facteurs qui influencent la pérennité des filières africaines sur les marchés internationaux d’exportation. Elle s’appuie sur les données commerciales issues de la base COMTRADE, couvrant la période 2000-2019. L’analyse mobilise des méthodes non paramétriques (notamment l’estimateur de Kaplan-Meier pour la fonction de survie) et semi-paramétriques (modèle à risques proportionnels de Cox), spécifiquement adaptées à l’étude des phénomènes de durée.Les principaux résultats révèlent qu’environ 47,4 % des filières cessent leurs exportations avant d’atteindre dix années de présence continue sur les marchés étrangers. Par ailleurs, une proportion très élevée des filières n’exporte qu’une seule année. De plus, le risque de retrait du marché semble augmenter avec la taille et le poids des produits exportés, ce qui se traduit par une probabilité accrue d’échec à l’exportation. À l’inverse, l’introduction de nouveaux produits ainsi qu’un degré plus élevé de concentration des marchés d’exportation réduisent sensiblement ce risque de sortie, contribuant ainsi à allonger la durée de survie des filières. Ces conclusions mettent en lumière plusieurs mécanismes à l’œuvre et soulignent l’importance de ces variables pour mieux orienter les politiques commerciales visant à renforcer la compétitivité et la durabilité des exportations africaines.
This article analyzes the determinants of the survival of African commodity chains in export markets. It is based on COMTRADE trade data covering the period from 2000 to 2019. The analysis uses non-parametric methods (in particular the Kaplan-Meier estimator for the survival function) and semi-parametric methods (Cox proportional hazards model), which are specifically suited to the study of duration phenomena. The main results reveal that around 47.4% of sectors cease exporting before reaching ten years of continuous presence on foreign markets. Furthermore, a very high proportion of sectors only export for a single year. In addition, the risk of market withdrawal seems to increase with the size and weight of the products exported, which translates into a higher probability of export failure. Conversely, the introduction of new products and a higher degree of concentration in export markets significantly reduce this risk of exit, thereby helping to extend the survival time of sectors. These findings highlight several mechanisms at work and underscore the importance of these variables in better targeting trade policies aimed at strengthening the competitiveness and sustainability of African exports.
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