Renaissance Dam and Development in Ethiopia: National Gains and Regional Losses
Keywords:
Renaissance Dam, Nile River, Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Water Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation
Abstract
This article examines the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project and its impact on the development of Ethiopia on the one hand, and the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, on the other. It highlights the economic, political, and social gains Ethiopia has achieved through the construction of the dam, as opposed to the losses incurred by Egypt and Sudan in these areas. The article also discusses regional challenges related to water management and presents models of successful co-operation, such as the Mekong River experience and the 1995 agreement that established a joint committee to manage the basin. The article proposes a set of solutions to achieve joint development among the three countries, based on regional cooperation, the establishment of a tripartite committee to manage the river's resources, and the adoption of water and non-water projects that benefit all parties. The article concludes by emphasising the importance of establishing a common institutional framework that ensures the fair and sustainable use of the Nile's waters, thereby promoting regional stability and development.
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
PlumX Statistics
References
1. 1995 Agreement & Procedural 19_Nov_2020.indd. https://www.mrcmekong.org/
2. Abdelhady, D., Aggestam, K., Andersson, D. E., Beckman, O., Berndtsson, R., Palmgren, K. B., ... & Pilesjö, P. (2015), The Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Is there a meeting point between nationalism and hydrosolidarity? Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 155(1), 73-82.
3. Abdelhaleem, F. S., & Helal, E. Y. (2015). Impacts of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on different water usages in upper Egypt. Br. J. Appl. Sci. Techno, 8(5), 461-483.
4. Abdelmohsen, K., Sultan, M., Yan, E., Abotalib, A. Z., Save, H., Emil, M., ... & Abdelmalik, K. (2024). Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water. PNAS nexus, 3(7), pgae219.
5. Abebe, D. (2014). Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Nile: The Economics of International Water Law. Chi. J. Int'l L., 15, 27.
6. Ahmed, A. T., & Elsanabary, M. H. (2015). Hydrological and environmental impacts of grand Ethiopian renaissance dam on the Nile River. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Water Technology Conference, IWTC18, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt (pp. 12-14).
7. Ahmed, M., Abdelrehim, R., Elshalkany, M., & Abdrabou, M. (2024). Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River’s downstream reservoirs. Journal of Hydrology, 633, 130952.
8. Aljefri, Y. M., Fang, L., Hipel, K. W., & Madani, K. (2019). Strategic analyses of the hydropolitical conflicts surrounding the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam. Group Decision and Negotiation, 28, 305-340.
9. Al-Saidi, M., & Hefny, A. (2018). Institutional arrangements for beneficial regional cooperation on water, energy and food priority issues in the Eastern Nile Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 562, 821-831.
10. Attia, H., & Saleh, M. (2021). The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (GIGA Focus Afrika, 4).: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) – Leibniz - Hamburg.
11. Elnour, M. (2019), The impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissances Dam on the Water-Energy-Food security nexus in Sudan, Master thesis in Sustainable Development, Sweden.
12. Hamad, O. E. T., & El-Battahani, A. (2005). Sudan and the Nile basin. Aquatic Sciences, 67, 28-41.
13. Hassan, H. B., & Mohmd, E. S. O. (2018). Egyptian water security in view of the risks emerged by the construction of the Renaissance Dam. Middle East J. Agri. Res, 7(3), 836-846.
14. Heggy, E., Ramah, M., & Abotalib, A. Z. (2023). Examining the accuracy of using a single short-term historical flow period to assess the Nile’s downstream water deficit from GERD filling: A technical note. Earth Systems and Environment, 7(4), 723-732.
15. Heggy, E., Sharkawy, Z., & Abotalib, A. Z. (2022). Reply to Comment on ‘Egypt’s water budget deficit and suggested mitigation policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam filling scenarios’ by Kevin Wheeler et al’. Environmental Research Letters, 17(12), 128001.
16. Kadi. A, (Saturday, March 9, 2024), Editor-in-Chief of the Ethiopian Science Newspaper, Year 46, Issue 1306, https://alarab.co.uk/sites/default/files/2024-03, p 7.
17. Kahsay, T. N., Arjoon, D., Kuik, O., Brouwer, R., Tilmant, A., & van der Zaag, P. (2019), A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams–the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin, Environmental Modelling & Software, 117, 76-88.
18. Kamara, A., Ahmed, M., & Benavides, A. (2022). Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa. Water 2022, 14, 312.
19. Kenawy, E. M. (2013), Potential economic impacts of Ethiopian renaissance dam on Egypt, International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Research (IJECR). ISSN, 2250-0006.
20. Khayry, F. (2022). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Egypt’s Water Security. The Undergraduate Research Journal, 8(1), 2.
21. Kim, U., & Kaluarachchi, J. J. (2009). Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 45(6), 1361-1378.
22. Maden, T. E. (2013). Sınıraşan Su Havzalarında İşbirliği Sorunu. Middle Eastern Analysis/Ortadogu Analiz, 5(53).
23. Matthews, R., & Vivoda, V. (2023). ‘Water Wars’: strategic implications of the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Conflict, Security & Development, 23(4), 333-366.
24. Melesse, A. M., Abtew, W., & Setegn, S. G. (2011). Nile River Basin. Cham: Springer.
25. Metawie*, A. (2004). History of co-operation in the Nile Basin. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 20(1), 47-63.
26. Osborne, M. (2010). The Mekong River under Threat. Asia-Pacific Journal, 8(2), e2.
27. Sehring, J., Schmeier, S., ter Horst, R., Offutt, A., & Sharipova, B. (2022). Diving into water diplomacy–exploring the emergence of a concept. Diplomatica, 4(2), 200-221.
28. Soukhaphon, A., Baird, I. G., & Hogan, Z. S. (2021). The impacts of hydropower dams in the Mekong River Basin: A review. Water, 13(3), 265.
29. Tayie, M. S. (2018). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Ethiopian challenge of hydropolitical hegemony on the Nile Basin. In Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Versus Aswan High Dam: A View from Egypt (pp. 485-517). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
30. Tekuya, M. (2020). The Egyptian hydro-hegemony in the Nile basin: the quest for changing the status quo. The Journal of Water Law, 26, 2.
31. Tesfa, B. (2013). Benefit of grand Ethiopian renaissance dam project (GERDP) for Sudan and Egypt.
32. Verhoeven, H. (2021). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Africa's Water Tower, Environmental Justice & Infrastructural Power. Daedalus, 150(4), 159-180.
33. Walilegne, Y. T. (2004). The Nile Basin: from confrontation to cooperation. Dalhousie LJ, 27, 503.
34. Yihdego, Y., Khalil, A., & Salem, H. S. (2017). Nile River’s basin dispute: perspectives of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Glob. J. Hum. Soc. Sci, 17(4), 1-21.
35. Zeitoun, M., & Warner, J. (2006). Hydro-hegemony–a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts. Water policy, 8(5), 435-460.
36. Zhang, Y., Block, P., Hammond, M., & King, A. (2015), Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: implications for downstream riparian countries, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 141(9), 05015002.
2. Abdelhady, D., Aggestam, K., Andersson, D. E., Beckman, O., Berndtsson, R., Palmgren, K. B., ... & Pilesjö, P. (2015), The Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Is there a meeting point between nationalism and hydrosolidarity? Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 155(1), 73-82.
3. Abdelhaleem, F. S., & Helal, E. Y. (2015). Impacts of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on different water usages in upper Egypt. Br. J. Appl. Sci. Techno, 8(5), 461-483.
4. Abdelmohsen, K., Sultan, M., Yan, E., Abotalib, A. Z., Save, H., Emil, M., ... & Abdelmalik, K. (2024). Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water. PNAS nexus, 3(7), pgae219.
5. Abebe, D. (2014). Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Nile: The Economics of International Water Law. Chi. J. Int'l L., 15, 27.
6. Ahmed, A. T., & Elsanabary, M. H. (2015). Hydrological and environmental impacts of grand Ethiopian renaissance dam on the Nile River. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Water Technology Conference, IWTC18, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt (pp. 12-14).
7. Ahmed, M., Abdelrehim, R., Elshalkany, M., & Abdrabou, M. (2024). Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River’s downstream reservoirs. Journal of Hydrology, 633, 130952.
8. Aljefri, Y. M., Fang, L., Hipel, K. W., & Madani, K. (2019). Strategic analyses of the hydropolitical conflicts surrounding the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam. Group Decision and Negotiation, 28, 305-340.
9. Al-Saidi, M., & Hefny, A. (2018). Institutional arrangements for beneficial regional cooperation on water, energy and food priority issues in the Eastern Nile Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 562, 821-831.
10. Attia, H., & Saleh, M. (2021). The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. (GIGA Focus Afrika, 4).: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) – Leibniz - Hamburg.
11. Elnour, M. (2019), The impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissances Dam on the Water-Energy-Food security nexus in Sudan, Master thesis in Sustainable Development, Sweden.
12. Hamad, O. E. T., & El-Battahani, A. (2005). Sudan and the Nile basin. Aquatic Sciences, 67, 28-41.
13. Hassan, H. B., & Mohmd, E. S. O. (2018). Egyptian water security in view of the risks emerged by the construction of the Renaissance Dam. Middle East J. Agri. Res, 7(3), 836-846.
14. Heggy, E., Ramah, M., & Abotalib, A. Z. (2023). Examining the accuracy of using a single short-term historical flow period to assess the Nile’s downstream water deficit from GERD filling: A technical note. Earth Systems and Environment, 7(4), 723-732.
15. Heggy, E., Sharkawy, Z., & Abotalib, A. Z. (2022). Reply to Comment on ‘Egypt’s water budget deficit and suggested mitigation policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam filling scenarios’ by Kevin Wheeler et al’. Environmental Research Letters, 17(12), 128001.
16. Kadi. A, (Saturday, March 9, 2024), Editor-in-Chief of the Ethiopian Science Newspaper, Year 46, Issue 1306, https://alarab.co.uk/sites/default/files/2024-03, p 7.
17. Kahsay, T. N., Arjoon, D., Kuik, O., Brouwer, R., Tilmant, A., & van der Zaag, P. (2019), A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams–the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin, Environmental Modelling & Software, 117, 76-88.
18. Kamara, A., Ahmed, M., & Benavides, A. (2022). Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa. Water 2022, 14, 312.
19. Kenawy, E. M. (2013), Potential economic impacts of Ethiopian renaissance dam on Egypt, International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Research (IJECR). ISSN, 2250-0006.
20. Khayry, F. (2022). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Egypt’s Water Security. The Undergraduate Research Journal, 8(1), 2.
21. Kim, U., & Kaluarachchi, J. J. (2009). Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 45(6), 1361-1378.
22. Maden, T. E. (2013). Sınıraşan Su Havzalarında İşbirliği Sorunu. Middle Eastern Analysis/Ortadogu Analiz, 5(53).
23. Matthews, R., & Vivoda, V. (2023). ‘Water Wars’: strategic implications of the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Conflict, Security & Development, 23(4), 333-366.
24. Melesse, A. M., Abtew, W., & Setegn, S. G. (2011). Nile River Basin. Cham: Springer.
25. Metawie*, A. (2004). History of co-operation in the Nile Basin. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 20(1), 47-63.
26. Osborne, M. (2010). The Mekong River under Threat. Asia-Pacific Journal, 8(2), e2.
27. Sehring, J., Schmeier, S., ter Horst, R., Offutt, A., & Sharipova, B. (2022). Diving into water diplomacy–exploring the emergence of a concept. Diplomatica, 4(2), 200-221.
28. Soukhaphon, A., Baird, I. G., & Hogan, Z. S. (2021). The impacts of hydropower dams in the Mekong River Basin: A review. Water, 13(3), 265.
29. Tayie, M. S. (2018). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Ethiopian challenge of hydropolitical hegemony on the Nile Basin. In Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Versus Aswan High Dam: A View from Egypt (pp. 485-517). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
30. Tekuya, M. (2020). The Egyptian hydro-hegemony in the Nile basin: the quest for changing the status quo. The Journal of Water Law, 26, 2.
31. Tesfa, B. (2013). Benefit of grand Ethiopian renaissance dam project (GERDP) for Sudan and Egypt.
32. Verhoeven, H. (2021). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Africa's Water Tower, Environmental Justice & Infrastructural Power. Daedalus, 150(4), 159-180.
33. Walilegne, Y. T. (2004). The Nile Basin: from confrontation to cooperation. Dalhousie LJ, 27, 503.
34. Yihdego, Y., Khalil, A., & Salem, H. S. (2017). Nile River’s basin dispute: perspectives of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Glob. J. Hum. Soc. Sci, 17(4), 1-21.
35. Zeitoun, M., & Warner, J. (2006). Hydro-hegemony–a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts. Water policy, 8(5), 435-460.
36. Zhang, Y., Block, P., Hammond, M., & King, A. (2015), Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: implications for downstream riparian countries, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 141(9), 05015002.
Published
2026-02-28
How to Cite
Wso, A. A., & Elmourad, N. E. A. (2026). Renaissance Dam and Development in Ethiopia: National Gains and Regional Losses. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 22(5), 1. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2026.v22n5p1
Section
ESJ Humanities
Copyright (c) 2026 Aram A. Wso, Nagla Elmourad Abdullh Elmourad
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
