The Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 First Wave and the New International Scenarios. An Historical Dimension
Keywords:
Covid-19; crisis; business cycles; uncertainty; economic systems
Abstract
The Covid-19 crisis is urging scholars to ponder the perspectives of the globalization process which started at the end of the XXth Century. The pandemic is creating a sense of insecurity and uncertainty which has few precedents in the current age, pervading wider and wider sectors of the population. Moving from the analysis of the first wave of the pandemic (March 2020), this essay proposes a model of analysis of the effects of the pandemic by framing the economic emergency produced by it from a historical and theoretical perspective. The paper will also try to indicate the traits and the model of a new economic paradigm: the birth of a new globalization that would surely feature competitions between its biggest geoeconomics areas, but that would also offer the opportunity to promote novel perspectives for development and to achieve a brand-new convergence between the private and public interest.
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References
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2. Attali, J. (2009) Changer, par precaution. L’Express, May 3.
3. Bachi R. (1918) Economia di guerra. Rome: “L’Universelle” Imprimerie Polyglotte.
4. Baldwin R. (2016), The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization, Harvard, Harvard University Press.
5. Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro B. (2020 a) Introduction. In Economics in the Time of COVID-19 (R. Baldwin, B. Weder di Mauro ed). London: CEPR Press.
6. Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro B. (2020 b) Introduction. In Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes (R. Baldwin, B. Weder di Mauro ed.). London: CEPR Press, 1-24.
7. Beck U. (1986) Risikogesellschaft: Auf dem Weg in eine andere Moderne. Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp Taschenbuch Verlag.
8. Beck U. (2005) La società del rischio. Verso una seconda modernità. Rome: Carocci.
9. Centro Studi Confindustria (2020) Le previsioni per l’Italia. Quali condizioni per la tenuta ed il rilancio dell’economia?. Rome, March (https://www.confindustria.it/home/centro-studi/temi-di-ricerca/congiuntura-e-previsioni/tutti/dettaglio/rapporto-previsione-economia-italiana-scenari-geoeconomici-primavera-2020).
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17. Fubini, F. (2020) Coronavirus, Gurría (Ocse): “Questa è l’ora delle scelte. Subito un Piano Marshall e la svolta degli eurobond”. Corriere della Sera, March 25.
18. Galbraith J.K. (2009) The Great Crash of 1929. New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
19. Gioffrè, D. (1969) Note sull’assicurazione e sugli assicuratori genovesi tra Medioevo ed Età Moderna. Atti della Società Ligure di Storia Patria, n.s., IX, 27-51.
20. Goldin I., Kutarna C. (2016), Age of Discovery: Navigating the Risks and Rewards of Our New Renaissance. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
21. Golle V., Schneeweiss Z. (2020) Charting the Economy: Health Crisis Turns Global Recession. Bloomberg. March 27 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/charting-the-economy-health-crisis-turns-global-recession).
22. Gourinchas, P.O. (2020) Flattening the pandemic and recession curves, in Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes (R. Baldwin, B. Weder di Mauro ed.). London: CEPR Press, 31-39.
23. Gurría, A. (2020) Coronavirus (COVID-19): Joint actions to win the war. March 26 (http://www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/Coronavirus-COVID-19-Joint-actions-to-win-the-war.pdf).
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25. Harari, Y.N. (2020), The world after Coronavirus. Financial Times, March 20.
26. Harvey D. (2010), La crisi della modernità, Milano, Il Saggiatore.
27. Hixon, G. (2020) Outlook Special Feature: Global Growth at 1%?. In Continuum Economics, March 20 (https://continuumeconomics.com/download/article/outlook-special-feature-global-growth-at-1).
28. Huang, F. (2020) Covid-19: After a lost quarter, 75% of the Chinese economy is back. Euler Hermes. March 10.
29. ILO (2020 a) COVID-19 and the world of work: Impact and policy responses. March 18 (https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/coronavirus/impacts-and-responses/lang--en/index.htm).
30. ILO (2020 b) COVID-19 has exposed the fragility of our economies. March 27 (https://www.ilo.org/rome/risorse-informative/speeches/WCMS_739961/lang--en/index.htm).
31. Keynes J.M. (1920) The economic consequences of the peace. London: Macmillan and Co. (First Edition December 1919).
32. Krugman, P. (2020 a) The Covid-19 Slump Has Arrived. The New York Times, April 2.
33. Krugman, P. (2020 b) The case for permanent stimulus. In Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes (R. Baldwin, B. Weder di Mauro ed.). London: CEPR Press, 213-219.
34. Lepore A. (2013) La Cassa per il Mezzogiorno e la Banca Mondiale: un modello per lo sviluppo economico italiano. Soveria Mannelli: Rubbettino.
35. Luzzetti M., Spencer M., Hooper P., Wall M., (2020) Impact of Covid-19 on the global economy. Deutsche Bank Research. March 2 (https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwnode=RPS_EN-PROD$PROD0000000000464258&rwsite=RPS_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000505590).
36. Occorsio, E. (2020) Roubini: ’Diamo soldi in mano ai cittadini. Solo così si esce dalla crisi’. Intervista all’economista che previde il crollo del 2008. la Repubblica, March 17.
37. OECD (2011), Divided We Stand. Why Inequality Keep Rising.
38. OECD (2020 a) Evaluating the initial impact of COVID-19 containment measures on economic activity. March 27 (https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=126_126496-evgsi2gmqj&title=Evaluating_the_initial_impact_of_COVID-19_containment_measures_on_economic_activity).
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41. OECD (2020 d), Turning hope into reality, «Economic Outlook», December.
42. Osterhammel J., Petersson N.P. (2003), Geschichte der Globalisierung: Dimensionen,. Prozesse, Epochen, München, C.H. Beck
43. Pallaro, G. (2020) COVID-19: No Way Back for Italian Debt. Continuum Economics. March 25. (https://continuumeconomics.com/download/article/covid-19-no-way-back-for-italian-debt).
44. Prometeia (2020) Rapporto di Previsione marzo 2020 (https://www.prometeia.it/news/papporto-previsione-marzo-2020-highlights).
45. Saraceno, P. (1974) Economia di pace ed economia di guerra nella gestione dell’azienda industriale. In P. Saraceno, Ricostruzione e pianificazione (1943-1948). Milano: Giuffrè Editore.
46. Schumpeter J.A. (1939) Business Cycles. A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.
47. Smit S., Hirt M., Buehler K., Lund S., Greenberg E., Govindarajan A. (2020) Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time. McKinsey & Company. March (https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time).
48. Subran L., Boata A., Dib G. (2020) Quarantined trade: Covid-19 to cost USD 320bn of trade losses every quarter. Euler Hermes-Allianz Research. March 5 (https://www.eulerhermes.com/en_global/economic-research/news/coronavirus-to-cost-USD320bn-of-trade-losses-every-quarter.html).
49. The Economist (2020) Experimental treatment. Governments are spending big to keep the world economy from getting dangerously sick. March 19 (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/19/governments-are-spending-big-to-keep-the-world-economy-from-getting-dangerously-sick).
50. The Economist Intelligence Unit (2020) COVID-19 to send almost all G20 countries into a recession. May 22 (https://www.eiu.com/n/covid-19-to-send-almost-all-g20-countries-into-a-recession/)
51. The European House – Ambrosetti (2020 a) Monitoraggio dell’evoluzione della pandemia COVID-19 nel mondo e in Italia e simulazioni degli impatti sanitari ed economici. March 23.
52. The European House – Ambrosetti (2020 b) Dalla vulnerabilità alla resilienza: come gestire le istituzioni e le imprese ai tempi del Coronavirus. March 19 (https://www.ambrosetti.eu/leaders-education/speciale-covid-19/).
53. The Wall Street Journal (2020) Leaderless on the Economy. March 20 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/leaderless-on-the-economy-11584745345).
54. Tooze A.J. (2018) Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World. London: Allen Lane.
55. Tooze A.J., Schularick M. (2020) The shock of coronavirus could split Europe – unless nations share the burden. The Guardian, March 25.
56. VV.AA., (2020 a) COVID-19: Quarantined economics (L. Subran ed.). Euler Hermes - Allianz Research. March 31(https://www.eulerhermes.com/content/dam/onemarketing/ehndbx/eulerhermes_com/en_gl/erd/publications/pdf/New2020_03_31_QuarantinedEconomics.pdf).
57. VV.AA., (2020 b) COVID-19: Quarantined economics. Economic, Capital Markets and Industry Research. Global Economic Outlook. Euler Hermes-Allianz Research. April (https://www.eulerhermes.com/content/dam/onemarketing/ehndbx/eulerhermes_com/en_gl/erd/publications/pdf/PPT-20200320_Quarantined_Economics_FINAL.pdf).
58. VV.AA., (2020 c) The coronavirus will cause unprecedented shock to the global economy. Moody’s Investors Service. March 25 (https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1220646).
59. VV.AA., (2020 d) SARS-Coronavirus-2/ COVID-19: An Update on Developments in Europe. Goldman Sachs. (D. Heymann, S.J. Stehn, S. Ardagna, P. Oppenheimer ed.). March 26 (https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/talks-at-gs/03-26-20-update-coronavirus-europe-f/report.pdf).
60. Vespignani A. (2019) L’algoritmo e l’oracolo. Come la scienza predice il futuro e ci aiuta a cambiarlo. Milano: il Saggiatore.
61. Vista (2020) Edi Rama agli italiani: ’Siete nostri Fratelli’”. March 29 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7T8igZVODM).
62. Zandi, M. (2020) COVID-19: Global Economic Tsunami. Moody’s Analytics. March 2020 (https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/covid-19-economic-tsunami.pdf).
63. Zandi M., DeRitis C., Friedman E., Moore D., Sweet R. (2020) COVID-19: Economic Scenarios. Moody’s Analytics. March 27 (https://ma.moodys.com/rs/961-KCJ-308/images/2020-03-27-Global-Economic-Forecast-Update-Final.pdf).
Published
2022-10-14
How to Cite
Lepore, A., Palermo, S., & Pomella, A. (2022). The Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 First Wave and the New International Scenarios. An Historical Dimension. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 10, 145. Retrieved from https://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/article/view/15970
Section
ESI Preprints
Copyright (c) 2022 Amedeo Lepore, Stefano Palermo, Andrea Pomella
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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