The Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 First Wave and the New International Scenarios: An Historical Dimension
Keywords:
COVID-19, crisis, business cycles, uncertainty, economic systems
Abstract
The COVID-19 crisis is urging scholars to ponder the perspectives of the globalization process which started at the end of the XX Century, while the pandemic is increasing a sense of insecurity and uncertainty which has few precedents in the current age, pervading wider and wider sectors of the population. This paper focuses on analyzing the effects of the first wave of the pandemic (March 2020) using a historical-economic methodology based on a diachronic and comparative model. The effects of the crisis produced by the spread of Coronavirus are thus part of a wider analysis, in which the comparison of the behaviours of the different geoeconomic areas is carried out within the evolution of the long-term business cycles, considering both development and crisis phases. Finally, the article also proposes some hypotheses on the possible models of organization that the current globalization may encounter in the coming years.
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References
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37. OECD (2020a). Evaluating the initial impact of COVID-19 containment measures on economic activity, March 27 (https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=126_126496evgsi2gmqj&title=Evaluating_the_initial_impact_of_COVID-19_containment_measures_on_economic_activity).
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41. Pallaro, G. (2020). COVID-19: No Way Back for Italian Debt, Continuum Economics. March 25. (https://continuumeconomics.com/download/article/covid-19-no-way-back-for-italian-debt).
42. Prometeia (2020). Rapporto di Previsione marzo 2020 (https://www.prometeia.it/news/papporto-previsione-marzo-2020-highlights).
43. Saraceno, P. (1974). Economia di pace ed economia di guerra nella gestione dell’azienda industriale, in P. Saraceno, Ricostruzione e pianificazione (1943-1948). Milano: Giuffrè Editore.
44. Schumpeter, J.A. (1939). Business Cycles. A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.
45. Smit, S., Hirt, M., Buehler, K., Lund, S., Greenberg, E., & Govindarajan, A. (2020). Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time, McKinsey & Company. March (https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time).
46. Subran, L., Boata, A., & Dib, G. (2020). Quarantined trade: Covid-19 to cost USD 320bn of trade losses every quarter, Euler Hermes-Allianz Research. March 5 (https://www.eulerhermes.com/en_global/economic-research/news/coronavirus-to-cost-USD320bn-of-trade-losses-every-quarter.html).
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50. The European House – Ambrosetti (2020b). Dalla vulnerabilità alla resilienza: come gestire le istituzioni e le imprese ai tempi del Coronavirus, March 19 (https://www.ambrosetti.eu/leaders-education/speciale-covid-19/).
51. The Wall Street Journal (2020). Leaderless on the Economy, March 20 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/leaderless-on-the-economy-11584745345).
52. Tooze, A.J. (2018). Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World, London: Allen Lane.
53. Tooze, A.J. & Schularick, M. (2020). The shock of coronavirus could split Europe – unless nations share the burden, The Guardian, March 25.
54. VV.AA. (2020a). COVID-19: Quarantined economics (L. Subran ed.). Euler Hermes - Allianz Research. March 31 (https://www.eulerhermes.com/content/dam/onemarketing/ehndbx/eulerhermes_com/en_gl/erd/publications/pdf/New2020_03_31_QuarantinedEconomics.pdf).
55. VV.AA. (2020b). COVID-19: Quarantined economics. Economic, Capital Markets and Industry Research, Global Economic Outlook. Euler Hermes-Allianz Research. April (https://www.eulerhermes.com/content/dam/onemarketing/ehndbx/eulerhermes_com/en_gl/erd/publications/pdf/PPT20200320_Quarantined_Economics_FINAL.pdf).
56. VV.AA. (2020d). SARS-Coronavirus-2/ COVID-19: An Update on Developments in Europe, Goldman Sachs. (D. Heymann, S.J. Stehn, S. Ardagna, P. Oppenheimer ed.). March 26 (https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/talks-at-gs/03-26-20-update-coronavirus-europe-f/report.pdf).
57. Vespignani, A. (2019). L’algoritmo e l’oracolo. Come la scienza predice il futuro e ci aiuta a cambiarlo. Milano: il Saggiatore.
58. Zandi, M. (2020). COVID-19: Global Economic Tsunami, Moody’s Analytics. March 2020 (https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/covid-19-economic-tsunami.pdf).
59. Zandi, M., DeRitis, C., Friedman, E., Moore, D., & Sweet, R. (2020). COVID-19: Economic Scenarios, Moody’s Analytics. March 27 (https://ma.moodys.com/rs/961-KCJ-308/images/2020-03-27-Global-Economic-Forecast-Update-Final.pdf).
Published
2023-03-18
How to Cite
Lepore, A., Palermo, S., & Pomella, A. (2023). The Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 First Wave and the New International Scenarios: An Historical Dimension. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 19(38), 6. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2023.v19n38p6
Section
Special Editions
Copyright (c) 2023 Amedeo Lepore, Stefano Palermo, Andrea Pomella
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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