Asymmetric Pass-through Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rates on Inflation in Nigeria: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Model
Keywords:
Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), asymmetric pass-through, oil price shock, exchange rates, and inflation
Abstract
This paper employs the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model developed by Shin, et al (2014) to examine the asymmetric effect of oil price and exchange rates pass-through on inflation in Nigeria over a period of 1970 to 2020. The result of the asymmetric test revealed the existence of asymmetries among the variables of the study, suggesting that there is a nonlinear interaction among the variables used in the study. This validates the choice of a non-linear ARDL model for the study. Results of the long-run estimates show that rising (Positive) oil price shocks have a greater impact on inflation than falling (negative) oil price shocks. Furthermore, it is evident from the result that the depreciation of the exchange rate has a much and significant effect on inflation than the appreciation of the exchange rate in Nigeria. However, a rising interest rate increases inflation by 0.84 per cent while a falling interest rate increases inflation by 0.85 per cent. This implies that the effect of negative interest rate on inflation is higher than its positive effect on inflation, though, by a smaller amount of about 0.01 per cent. Again, the short-run dynamic model revealed a high speed of convergence of more than 90% from the short-run disequilibrium. During the study period, the oil price fluctuations showed a significant and incomplete pass-through to both exchange rates and inflation in Nigeria. Moreover, the results suggest that positive oil price changes have a larger impact than the negative ones, that the effect of an oil price shock on inflation and exchange rates is larger in the long-run than in the short-run, and that there is incomplete pass-through effect of oil price on domestic inflation and exchange rates. Based on the findings, the study recommends policies that set oil prices and exchange rates within reasonable limits to check inflation in Nigeria and should diversify its economy as well as withdraw the current subsidy regime completely.
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References
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7. Atems, B., K., (2015). Do Exchange Rates Respond Asymmetrically to Shocks in the Crude Oil Market? Energy Economics, 227-238.
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12. Bernanke, B., S., Gertler, M., Watson, M., & Sims, C., A., (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997 (1), 91–157.
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14. Blanchard, O., J., (2009). The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil ShocksWhy are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?, in International Dimensions of Monetary Policy. In J. G. Gertler. University of Chicago Press.
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16. Camareri, M., & Tamaritb, C., (2002). Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness: a cointegrated panel analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 24 No. 6, 591–605.
17. Danyan, W., L., (2020). Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Energy 22(1).
18. Dhungel, K., R., (2014). Estimation of Short and Long Run Equilibrium Coefficients in Error Correction Model: An Empirical Evidence from Nepal. International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, vol. 2, no. 6: 214-219. doi: 10.12691/ijefm-2-6-1.
19. Dogan, S., Ustaoglu, M., & Demez, S., (2012). Relationship between Real Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate: the case of Turkey. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 58, 1293 – 1300.
20. Ewurum, N., C., (2017). Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences Vol7(1), 12-27.
21. Gagnon, J., E., (2004). Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9 (4), 315–338.
22. Gali, C., A., & Clarida, R., (1994). Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks? NBER Working Paper No. 4658, Issued on February 1.
23. Guo, H., A., (2007). The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate. China Economic Review 18(4), 403-416.
24. Hamilton, J., (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
25. Hausmann, R., A., (2002). An Alternative Interpretation of the Resource Curse: Theory and Policy Implications. NBER Working Paper 9424, Cambridge, Mass.
26. Hooker, M., A., (2002). Are oil shocks inflationary?: Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime. . Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34 (2), 540–561.
27. Chen, S., (2009). Oil price pass-through into inflation. Energy Economics, 31 (1), 126–133.
28. Chen, S., S., & Chen, H., C., (2007). Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates. Energy Economics, 29(3):390-404.
29. Choi, S., Furceri., D., Loungani, R., & Mishra, S., (2018). Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 71-96.
30. Ibrahim, A., (2018). Oil price and USD-Naira exchange rate crash: Can economic diversification save the Naira? Energy Policy Volume 118, July, Pages 245-256.
31. Jin, G., (2008). The impact of an oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on economic growth: A comparative analysis for Russia, Japan, and China. . Research Journal of Internatıonal Studıes, (8), 98-111.
32. Jones, D., A., (2003). Foreign Exchange Rate and Oil price Exposure in the Long Run. Global Management Research, working paper series 41.
33. Kilian, L., (2014). Oil price shocks: causes and consequences. Annual Review of Resource Economics;6:133e54.
34. Kutan, A., M., & Wyazan, M., L., (2005). Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996–2003 is Kazakhstan vulnerable to Dutch Disease? Economic Systems 29, 242–25.
35. Macdonald, R., (1998). What determines real exchange rates? The long and the short of it. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 8: 117-153.
36. Macdonald, R., (1998). What determines real exchange rates? The long and the short of it. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, 117-153.
37. McGuirk, A., (1983). Oil price changes and real exchange rate movements among industrial countries. IMF Staff Papers 30, 843-883.
38. Medvedev, P., K., (2019). Monetary policy and the effect of the oil price‘s pass-through to inflation. Russian Journal of Economics 5, 211–219.
39. Moshiri, S., (2915). Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the economic growth of oil exporting countries: the role of institutions. OPEC Energy Review: 39(2):, 222e46.
40. Muthalib, A., A., (2018). The influence of fuel prices and unemployment rate towards the poverty level in Indonesia. . International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(3), 37-42.
41. Narayan, P., K., & Narayan, S., (2008). Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands. Energy Economics 30, 2686–2696.
42. NBS, National Bureau of Statistics, (2022). https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng
43. Norden, R., A., (1998). Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 299-316.
44. Nusair, S., (2019). Oil price and inflation dynamics in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries. Journal of Energy Economics 181 (2019) 1011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.208
45. Odionye, J., C., Ukeja, O., S., Ado, A., C., (2019). Oil Price Shocks and Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria: Sensitivity of Unit Root to Structural Breaks. . International Journal of Business and Economics Research. Vol. 8, No. 2, , 58-64.
46. Osuji, E., (2015). Oil Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, pp. Vol. 4, No. 3.
47. Pinto, B., (1987). Nigeria During and After the Oil Boom: A Policy Comparison with Indonesia. THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW, VOL. 1, NO. 3.
48. Pourroy, A., L.-V., (2019). Inflation targets and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation. Energy Economics 80, 860–875.
49. Prasertnukul, W., K., (2010). Exchange rates, price levels, and inflation targeting: Evidence from Asian countries. . Japan and the World Economy, 2010, vol. 22, issue 3, 173-182.
50. Rautava, J., (2004). The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy—a cointegration approach. Journal of comparative economics, pp. 32(2), 315-327.
51. Saad,S(2010) Energy consumption and economic growth: causality relationship for Nigeria (pages 15–24) OPEC ENERGY REVIEW March 2010
52. Sani, A., (2020). Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate: An Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect and Volatility Using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and General Autoregressive Conditional Heterochedasticity in Mean Models. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 104-108.
53. Sannassee, R., L., (2012). Oil prices and exchange rates: the case of Mauritius. Journal of International Business and Economics Volume: 12 Issue: 3.
54. Sannassee, R., L., (2012). Oil prices and exchange rates: the case of Mauritius .. Journal of International Business and Economics, Volume: 12 Issue: 3.
55. Seyhun-Doğan, M., U., (2012). Relationship between Real Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00.
56. Shitile, T., & Usman, N., (2020). Disaggregated inflation and asymmetric oil price pass-through in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 255-264.
57. Sulaymani, A., S., (2020). Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia. Energy Volume 200, 1 June, 117553.
58. Wirjanto, Y., A,. (2004). The Empirical Role of the Exchange Rate on the Crude-Oil Price Formation. . Energy Economics 26, 783-799.
59. Wirjanto, Y., A., (2004). The Empirical Role of the Exchange Rate on the Crude-Oil Price Formation. . Energy Economics 26, 783-799.
60. Wyzant, K., A., (2005). Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996–2003, is Kazakhstan vulnerable to Dutch Disease? Economic Systems 29, 242–25.
61. Yanga, L., Cai, C., J., & Hamori, S., (2018). What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 140-152.
62. Yousefi, A., & Wirjanto, T., S., (2004). The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation. Energy Economics 26, 783– 799.
63. Zhang, H., J., Dufour, M., J., & Galbraith, J., W., (2016). Exchange rate and commodity prices: measuring causality at multiple horizons. Journal of Empirical Finance, 100-120.
64. Zubair, A., O., (2013). Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. Central Bank of Nigeria Economic and Financial Review Volume 51/1 March.
2. Ahmed, W., Prakash, R., Uddin, G., S., & Chahal, R., J., K., (2020). On the intraday dynamics of oil price and exchange rate: What can we learn from China and India? Energy Economics Volume 91, September.
3. Akram, QF., (2004). Oil prices and exchange rates: the Norwegian experience. Economic Journal 7, 476–504.
4. Alfa, Y., (2019). Long-Run Impact Of Interest Rate, Exchange Rate And Inflation On Private Sector Investment In Nigeria. Confluence Journal of Economics and Allied Sciences (CJEAS) Volume 2 No 1. : https://www.researchgate.net/publication/364322500
5. Aliyu, S., (2009). Impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation. Research Journal of Internatıonal Studıes, (11, 4-15.
6. Amano, R., V., (1998). Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance 17, 299–316.
7. Atems, B., K., (2015). Do Exchange Rates Respond Asymmetrically to Shocks in the Crude Oil Market? Energy Economics, 227-238.
8. Bachmeier, L. A.. (2011). Why Don’t Oil Shocks Cause Inflation? Evidence from Disaggregate Inflation Data. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(6), 1165-1183.
9. Bala, U., & Chin, L., (2018). Asymmetric impacts of oil price and inflation: An empirical study of African OPEC member countries. Elsevier Journal of Energy Economics. doi:10.20944/preprints 201808.0064. v1.
10. Beckmann, J., Czudal, R., L., & Arora, V., (2020). The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence. Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88.
11. Benassy-Quere, A., Mignon, V., & Penot, A., (2007). China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar. Energy Policy 35, 5795–5805.
12. Bernanke, B., S., Gertler, M., Watson, M., & Sims, C., A., (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997 (1), 91–157.
13. Blanchard, O., J., & Gali, J., (2007). The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? NBER Working Paper, No. w13368.
14. Blanchard, O., J., (2009). The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil ShocksWhy are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?, in International Dimensions of Monetary Policy. In J. G. Gertler. University of Chicago Press.
15. Brown, S., P., A., & Yucel, M., K., (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey. . Quarterly Review of Economics & Finance 42:193e208.
16. Camareri, M., & Tamaritb, C., (2002). Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness: a cointegrated panel analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 24 No. 6, 591–605.
17. Danyan, W., L., (2020). Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Energy 22(1).
18. Dhungel, K., R., (2014). Estimation of Short and Long Run Equilibrium Coefficients in Error Correction Model: An Empirical Evidence from Nepal. International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, vol. 2, no. 6: 214-219. doi: 10.12691/ijefm-2-6-1.
19. Dogan, S., Ustaoglu, M., & Demez, S., (2012). Relationship between Real Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate: the case of Turkey. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 58, 1293 – 1300.
20. Ewurum, N., C., (2017). Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences Vol7(1), 12-27.
21. Gagnon, J., E., (2004). Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9 (4), 315–338.
22. Gali, C., A., & Clarida, R., (1994). Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks? NBER Working Paper No. 4658, Issued on February 1.
23. Guo, H., A., (2007). The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate. China Economic Review 18(4), 403-416.
24. Hamilton, J., (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
25. Hausmann, R., A., (2002). An Alternative Interpretation of the Resource Curse: Theory and Policy Implications. NBER Working Paper 9424, Cambridge, Mass.
26. Hooker, M., A., (2002). Are oil shocks inflationary?: Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime. . Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34 (2), 540–561.
27. Chen, S., (2009). Oil price pass-through into inflation. Energy Economics, 31 (1), 126–133.
28. Chen, S., S., & Chen, H., C., (2007). Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates. Energy Economics, 29(3):390-404.
29. Choi, S., Furceri., D., Loungani, R., & Mishra, S., (2018). Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 71-96.
30. Ibrahim, A., (2018). Oil price and USD-Naira exchange rate crash: Can economic diversification save the Naira? Energy Policy Volume 118, July, Pages 245-256.
31. Jin, G., (2008). The impact of an oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on economic growth: A comparative analysis for Russia, Japan, and China. . Research Journal of Internatıonal Studıes, (8), 98-111.
32. Jones, D., A., (2003). Foreign Exchange Rate and Oil price Exposure in the Long Run. Global Management Research, working paper series 41.
33. Kilian, L., (2014). Oil price shocks: causes and consequences. Annual Review of Resource Economics;6:133e54.
34. Kutan, A., M., & Wyazan, M., L., (2005). Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996–2003 is Kazakhstan vulnerable to Dutch Disease? Economic Systems 29, 242–25.
35. Macdonald, R., (1998). What determines real exchange rates? The long and the short of it. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 8: 117-153.
36. Macdonald, R., (1998). What determines real exchange rates? The long and the short of it. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, 117-153.
37. McGuirk, A., (1983). Oil price changes and real exchange rate movements among industrial countries. IMF Staff Papers 30, 843-883.
38. Medvedev, P., K., (2019). Monetary policy and the effect of the oil price‘s pass-through to inflation. Russian Journal of Economics 5, 211–219.
39. Moshiri, S., (2915). Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the economic growth of oil exporting countries: the role of institutions. OPEC Energy Review: 39(2):, 222e46.
40. Muthalib, A., A., (2018). The influence of fuel prices and unemployment rate towards the poverty level in Indonesia. . International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(3), 37-42.
41. Narayan, P., K., & Narayan, S., (2008). Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands. Energy Economics 30, 2686–2696.
42. NBS, National Bureau of Statistics, (2022). https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng
43. Norden, R., A., (1998). Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 299-316.
44. Nusair, S., (2019). Oil price and inflation dynamics in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries. Journal of Energy Economics 181 (2019) 1011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.208
45. Odionye, J., C., Ukeja, O., S., Ado, A., C., (2019). Oil Price Shocks and Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria: Sensitivity of Unit Root to Structural Breaks. . International Journal of Business and Economics Research. Vol. 8, No. 2, , 58-64.
46. Osuji, E., (2015). Oil Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, pp. Vol. 4, No. 3.
47. Pinto, B., (1987). Nigeria During and After the Oil Boom: A Policy Comparison with Indonesia. THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW, VOL. 1, NO. 3.
48. Pourroy, A., L.-V., (2019). Inflation targets and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation. Energy Economics 80, 860–875.
49. Prasertnukul, W., K., (2010). Exchange rates, price levels, and inflation targeting: Evidence from Asian countries. . Japan and the World Economy, 2010, vol. 22, issue 3, 173-182.
50. Rautava, J., (2004). The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy—a cointegration approach. Journal of comparative economics, pp. 32(2), 315-327.
51. Saad,S(2010) Energy consumption and economic growth: causality relationship for Nigeria (pages 15–24) OPEC ENERGY REVIEW March 2010
52. Sani, A., (2020). Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate: An Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect and Volatility Using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and General Autoregressive Conditional Heterochedasticity in Mean Models. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 104-108.
53. Sannassee, R., L., (2012). Oil prices and exchange rates: the case of Mauritius. Journal of International Business and Economics Volume: 12 Issue: 3.
54. Sannassee, R., L., (2012). Oil prices and exchange rates: the case of Mauritius .. Journal of International Business and Economics, Volume: 12 Issue: 3.
55. Seyhun-Doğan, M., U., (2012). Relationship between Real Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 00.
56. Shitile, T., & Usman, N., (2020). Disaggregated inflation and asymmetric oil price pass-through in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 255-264.
57. Sulaymani, A., S., (2020). Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia. Energy Volume 200, 1 June, 117553.
58. Wirjanto, Y., A,. (2004). The Empirical Role of the Exchange Rate on the Crude-Oil Price Formation. . Energy Economics 26, 783-799.
59. Wirjanto, Y., A., (2004). The Empirical Role of the Exchange Rate on the Crude-Oil Price Formation. . Energy Economics 26, 783-799.
60. Wyzant, K., A., (2005). Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996–2003, is Kazakhstan vulnerable to Dutch Disease? Economic Systems 29, 242–25.
61. Yanga, L., Cai, C., J., & Hamori, S., (2018). What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 140-152.
62. Yousefi, A., & Wirjanto, T., S., (2004). The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation. Energy Economics 26, 783– 799.
63. Zhang, H., J., Dufour, M., J., & Galbraith, J., W., (2016). Exchange rate and commodity prices: measuring causality at multiple horizons. Journal of Empirical Finance, 100-120.
64. Zubair, A., O., (2013). Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. Central Bank of Nigeria Economic and Financial Review Volume 51/1 March.
Published
2023-02-28
How to Cite
Sa’ad, S., Usman, A. B., Omaye, S. O., & Yau, H. (2023). Asymmetric Pass-through Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rates on Inflation in Nigeria: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Model. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 19(4), 1. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2023.v19n4p1
Section
ESJ Social Sciences
Copyright (c) 2023 Suleiman Sa’ad, Ali Baba Usman, Solomon Ochada Omaye, Hamisu Yau
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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