Mesure du Conservatisme de la Banque Centrale : Une évaluation empirique appliquée au cas de la Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale (BEAC)
Keywords:
Banque Centrale, BEAC, Conservatisme, Politique monétaire
Abstract
Dans cet article, nous proposons une mesure simple et fiable du degré de conservatisme de la Banque des États de l’Afrique centrale (BEAC). Cet indicateur est fondé sur la courbe de Taylor et s’inspire des travaux de Levieuge et Lucotte (2014). Contrairement à d’autres indicateurs de conservatisme développés dans la littérature, qui dépendent fortement du modèle économique et de la règle monétaire adoptés, la mesure que nous proposons ici est purement empirique et facilement calculable. Elle requiert seulement la connaissance des variances empiriques de quelques variables et peut aisément s’étendre à un large échantillon de pays. Les résultats empiriques montrent que, sur la période 1980-2015, la BEAC a accordé la priorité au soutien à l’activité économique plutôt qu’à l’objectif de couverture extérieure de la monnaie dans la CEMAC.
In this article, we propose a simple and reliable measure of the degree of conservatism of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). This indicator is based on the Taylor curve and draws on the work of Levieuge and Lucotte (2014). Unlike other conservatism indicators developed in the literature, which are highly dependent on the economic model and monetary rule adopted, the measure we propose here is purely empirical and easily calculable. It requires only knowledge of the empirical variances of a few variables, and can easily be extended to a large sample of countries. The empirical results show that, over the period 1980-2015, the BEAC prioritized support for economic activity over the objective of currency hedging in the CEMAC.
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References
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16. Clarida R., Gali J. et Gertler M. (1999). The science of monetary policy : A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature - N 37 (4), pp.1661-1707.
17. Darabi K. et Samimi J. (2016). Central Bank independence and Central Bank conservatism : theory with an application to Iran. Journal of Money and Economy. N 11 (1)- pp.15-30.
18. Dennis R. (2006). The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve. Journal of Applied Econometrics. N 21 - pp. 55-77.
19. Eijffinger, S. et Hoeberichts, M. (1998), The trade off between Central Bank independence and conservativeness. Discussion Paper N - 9644 - Mai, CentER for Economic Research, Tilburg.
20. Frappa S. et Mésonnier J.-S. (2010) : The housing price boom of the late 1990’s : did inflation targeting matter ? Journal of Financial Stability. Vol. 6, N°4 - pp. 243-254.
21. Fry M. (1998). Assessing Central Bank independence in developing countries : Do actions speak louder than words. Oxford Economic Papers. N 50 - pp.512-529.
22. Goodhart C. A. E. et Schoenmaker D. (1995). Should the functions of monetary policy and banking supervision be separated ? Oxford Economic Papers. Vol. 47, pp. 539-560.
23. Hallet A.et Proske D. (2018). Conservative Central Banks : How conservative should a Central Bank be ? Scottish Journal of Political Economy. N 65 (1), pp - 97-104.
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25. Hefeker C. et Zimmer B. (2011). The optimal choice of Central Bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty. Journal of Macroeconomics. N 33 (4) - pp.595-606.
26. Herrendorf B. et Lockwood B. (1997). Rogoff’s “Conservative” Central Banker restored. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. N 29(4) - pp.476-495.
27. King M. (1997). Changes in UK monetary policy : rules and discretion in practice. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 39 (1)- pp. 81-97.
28. Krause S. et Méndez F. (2005). Policy makers’ preferences, party ideology and the political business cycle. Southern Economic Journal - Vol. - 71 N°4 - pp. 752-767.
29. Kydland F. et Prescott E. (1977). Rules rather than discretion : The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy. N 85 - pp.473 - 491.
30. Levieuge G. et Lucotte Y. (2012). A simple empirical measure of Central Banks’ conservatism. Southern Economic Journal - N 81(2) - DOI :10.2139/ssrn.2047420 -April (2012).
31. Levieuge G. et Lucotte Y. (2014). Les cibleurs d’inflation sont-ils monomaniaques ? Revue Française d’Economie. N 28 (4) - pp.49-81.
32. Levieuge G., Lucotte Y et Pradines-Jobet F. (2016). Central banks’ preferences and banking sector vulnerability. Laboratoire d’Economie d’Orléans. UMR. September 2016.
33. Lin S. (2010). On the international effects of inflation targeting. The Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 92 - N°1 ; pp. 195-199.
34. Lohman S. (1992). Optimal commitment in monetary policy : Credibility versus flexibility. American economic review. N 82 (1) - pp. 273-286.
35. Masciandaro D. (2020). Independence, conservatism and beyond : Central Bank design and central banker preferences in monetary policy economics (1981-2019). Working Paper - N 136 - Avril 2020 . Département d’économie et centre Baffi Carefin, Université Bocconi et Suerf.
36. Mourougane A. (1997). Crédibilité, indépendance et politique monétaire : Une revue de la littérature. INSEE, Document de travail.
37. Nakata T. et Schmidt S. (2018). Conservatism and liquidity traps. Journal of Monetary Economics. (Septembre 2018), doi : https ://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.09.005.
38. Nakov A. (2008). Optimal and simple monetary policy rules with zero floor on the nominal interest rate. International Journal of Central Banking - N 4 (2), 73-127.
39. Niemann S. (2011). Dynamic monetary-fiscal interactions and the role of monetary conservatism. Journal of Monetary Economics - N 58 (3), pp.234-247.
40. Nordhaus W. (1975). The political business cycle. Review of Economic Studies, N°45 - pp.169-190.
41. Nosetti P. (2003). Les Banques Centrales et l’approche contractuelle de l’indépendance : Les enseignements du cas Néo-zélandais. Thèse de Doctorat en Sciences Economique. Université de Fribourg (Suisse) 08 Avril 2003.
42. Ozlale U. (2003). Price stability vs output stability : Tales of Federal Reserve Administrations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. N 27 - pp.1595-1610.
43. Pasca N., Aragón E., et Marcelo F. (2012). Preferences of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and optimal monetary rules in the inflation targeting regime. Estudos Economicos. N 42 (1)- pp.5 - 42 January (2012) - Portugal Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul.
44. Penot A. et Pollin J.-P. (1999). Construction d’une règle monétaire pour la Zone Euro. Revue économique. Vol. 50 - N°3 - pp. 535-546.
45. Rivot S. (2013). Rule-based frameworks in historical perspective : Keynes’ and Friedman’s monetary policies versus contemporary policy-rules. Journal of Monetary Economics - N 52 (1) - pp.201-227.
46. Rogoff K. (1985). Can international monetary policy cooperation be counter productive. Journal of International Economics. N 18 - pp.199-217.
47. Rudebusch G.D. et. Svensson L.E.O (1999). Policy rules for inflation targeting. in Taylor, J.B (Ed.). Monetary Policy Rules. Chap. 5 - pp. 203-262. Chicago University Press.
48. Smets F. et Wouters R. (2003). An estimated Dynamics Stochastic General Equilibrium model of the Euro Area. Journal of the European Economic Association. pp. 1123-1175.
49. Smets F. et Wouters R. (2005). Comparing shocks and frictions in Us and Euro Area business cycles : A Bayesian approach. Journal of the European Economic Association. N°20. pp. 161-183.
50. Smets F. et Wouters R. (2007). Shocks and frictions in us business cycles : A Bayesian DSGE approach. American Economic Review. N°97(3) - pp. 586-606.
51. Steiner Y. (2003). Le coût réel de l’indépendance de la Banque Centrale : économie politique comparée de la Deutsche Bundesbank et de la Banque du Japon dans les années soixante-dix. Université de Lausanne, Institut d’études politiques et internationales.
52. Svensson L.E.O (1997). Inflation forecast targeting : implementing and monitoring inflation targets. European Economic Review. Vol. 41- N°6 - pp- 1111-1146.
53. Svensson L.E.O (1999). Inflation targeting as monetary policy rule. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 43 N°3 - pp. 607-654.
54. Svensson L.E.O (2010). Inflation targeting, in Friedman B. et Woodford M. (éds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics. Vol. 3 - N°3 - Chap. 22, pp. 1237-1302. Amsterdam : Elsevier Science, North-Holland.
55. Tachibana M. (2004). Central Banks’ preferences in Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Japan and the World Economy. Vol. 16 - pp. 81-93.
56. Taylor J.B. (1979). Estimation and control of a macroeconomic model with rational expectations. Econometrica. Vol. 47 N°5 - pp. 1267-1286.
57. Walsh C. (1995). Optimal contracts for independent central bankers. American Economic Review. Vol. 85, pp. 150-167.
2. Adam K. et Billi M. (2014). Distortionary fiscal policy and monetary policy goals. Economics Letters - N 122 - (1), pp.1-6.
3. Adjemian S. et Devulder A. (2011). Evaluation de la politique monétaire dans un modèle DSGE pour la zone Euro. Revue Française d’Economie. N° 1/Vol XXVI. 2011-pp. 201-245 - ISSN 0769-0479.
4. Alesina A. (1989). Politics and business cycles in industrial democracies. Economic Policy, N .8 - pp.57-98.
5. Alesina A. et Roubini N. (1994). Political cycles in OECD Economies. In T. Persson et G. Tabellini (eds), Monetary and Fiscal Policy, M.I.T. Press - Vol.2 - pp.99-136.
6. Assenmacher K. (2006). Estimating Central Bank’s preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function. European Economic Review . N -50(8) - pp.1951-1974 DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2005.10.003 - European Central Bank- November (2006).
7. Avouyi-Dovi S., Matheron J. et Fève P (2007). Les modèles DSGE : leur intérêt pour les Banques Centrales. Bulletin de la Banque de France - N° 161- Mai 2007.
8. Barro R. et Gordon D. (1983). Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 12 – July - pp. 101-122.
9. Berger H. et Woitek U. (2005). Does conservatism matter ? A time series approach to Central Banking. Economic Journal. N 115- pp.745-766.
10. Berlemann M. et Hielscher K. (2013). Effective monetary conservatism : A comparison of 13 OECD Countries. Scottish Journal of Political Economy. N 60 - pp.267-290.
11. Berlemann M. et Hielscher K. (2016). Measuring effective monetary conservatism of Central Banks : A dynamic approach. Annals of Economics and Finance. N 17 (1), pp - 105-132.
12. Bibow J. (2002). Keynes on Central Banking and the structure of monetary policy, History of Political Economy. N 34 (4)- pp.749-787.
13. Calvo G. (1978). On the time consistency of optimal policy in a monetary economy, Econometrica. N 46 (6) - pp.1411-1428.
14. Cecchetti S. et Ehrmann M. (2002). Does inflation targeting increase output volatility ? an international comparison of policymakers’ preferences and outcomes. Working Paper 7426 http://www.nber.org/papers/w7426.
15. Loayza, K. Schmidt-Hebbel et N. Loayza (Eds.), Monetary policy : rules and transmission mechanisms. Vol. 4 - Central Bank of Chile - Chap. 9 - pp. 247-274.
16. Clarida R., Gali J. et Gertler M. (1999). The science of monetary policy : A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Literature - N 37 (4), pp.1661-1707.
17. Darabi K. et Samimi J. (2016). Central Bank independence and Central Bank conservatism : theory with an application to Iran. Journal of Money and Economy. N 11 (1)- pp.15-30.
18. Dennis R. (2006). The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve. Journal of Applied Econometrics. N 21 - pp. 55-77.
19. Eijffinger, S. et Hoeberichts, M. (1998), The trade off between Central Bank independence and conservativeness. Discussion Paper N - 9644 - Mai, CentER for Economic Research, Tilburg.
20. Frappa S. et Mésonnier J.-S. (2010) : The housing price boom of the late 1990’s : did inflation targeting matter ? Journal of Financial Stability. Vol. 6, N°4 - pp. 243-254.
21. Fry M. (1998). Assessing Central Bank independence in developing countries : Do actions speak louder than words. Oxford Economic Papers. N 50 - pp.512-529.
22. Goodhart C. A. E. et Schoenmaker D. (1995). Should the functions of monetary policy and banking supervision be separated ? Oxford Economic Papers. Vol. 47, pp. 539-560.
23. Hallet A.et Proske D. (2018). Conservative Central Banks : How conservative should a Central Bank be ? Scottish Journal of Political Economy. N 65 (1), pp - 97-104.
24. Hallett A. H et Prosk L D (2017). Conservative Central Banks : How conservative should a Central Bank be ? Scottish Journal of Political Economy. DOI : 10.1111/sjpe.12149. Scottish Economic Society (2017).
25. Hefeker C. et Zimmer B. (2011). The optimal choice of Central Bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty. Journal of Macroeconomics. N 33 (4) - pp.595-606.
26. Herrendorf B. et Lockwood B. (1997). Rogoff’s “Conservative” Central Banker restored. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. N 29(4) - pp.476-495.
27. King M. (1997). Changes in UK monetary policy : rules and discretion in practice. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 39 (1)- pp. 81-97.
28. Krause S. et Méndez F. (2005). Policy makers’ preferences, party ideology and the political business cycle. Southern Economic Journal - Vol. - 71 N°4 - pp. 752-767.
29. Kydland F. et Prescott E. (1977). Rules rather than discretion : The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy. N 85 - pp.473 - 491.
30. Levieuge G. et Lucotte Y. (2012). A simple empirical measure of Central Banks’ conservatism. Southern Economic Journal - N 81(2) - DOI :10.2139/ssrn.2047420 -April (2012).
31. Levieuge G. et Lucotte Y. (2014). Les cibleurs d’inflation sont-ils monomaniaques ? Revue Française d’Economie. N 28 (4) - pp.49-81.
32. Levieuge G., Lucotte Y et Pradines-Jobet F. (2016). Central banks’ preferences and banking sector vulnerability. Laboratoire d’Economie d’Orléans. UMR. September 2016.
33. Lin S. (2010). On the international effects of inflation targeting. The Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 92 - N°1 ; pp. 195-199.
34. Lohman S. (1992). Optimal commitment in monetary policy : Credibility versus flexibility. American economic review. N 82 (1) - pp. 273-286.
35. Masciandaro D. (2020). Independence, conservatism and beyond : Central Bank design and central banker preferences in monetary policy economics (1981-2019). Working Paper - N 136 - Avril 2020 . Département d’économie et centre Baffi Carefin, Université Bocconi et Suerf.
36. Mourougane A. (1997). Crédibilité, indépendance et politique monétaire : Une revue de la littérature. INSEE, Document de travail.
37. Nakata T. et Schmidt S. (2018). Conservatism and liquidity traps. Journal of Monetary Economics. (Septembre 2018), doi : https ://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.09.005.
38. Nakov A. (2008). Optimal and simple monetary policy rules with zero floor on the nominal interest rate. International Journal of Central Banking - N 4 (2), 73-127.
39. Niemann S. (2011). Dynamic monetary-fiscal interactions and the role of monetary conservatism. Journal of Monetary Economics - N 58 (3), pp.234-247.
40. Nordhaus W. (1975). The political business cycle. Review of Economic Studies, N°45 - pp.169-190.
41. Nosetti P. (2003). Les Banques Centrales et l’approche contractuelle de l’indépendance : Les enseignements du cas Néo-zélandais. Thèse de Doctorat en Sciences Economique. Université de Fribourg (Suisse) 08 Avril 2003.
42. Ozlale U. (2003). Price stability vs output stability : Tales of Federal Reserve Administrations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. N 27 - pp.1595-1610.
43. Pasca N., Aragón E., et Marcelo F. (2012). Preferences of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and optimal monetary rules in the inflation targeting regime. Estudos Economicos. N 42 (1)- pp.5 - 42 January (2012) - Portugal Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul.
44. Penot A. et Pollin J.-P. (1999). Construction d’une règle monétaire pour la Zone Euro. Revue économique. Vol. 50 - N°3 - pp. 535-546.
45. Rivot S. (2013). Rule-based frameworks in historical perspective : Keynes’ and Friedman’s monetary policies versus contemporary policy-rules. Journal of Monetary Economics - N 52 (1) - pp.201-227.
46. Rogoff K. (1985). Can international monetary policy cooperation be counter productive. Journal of International Economics. N 18 - pp.199-217.
47. Rudebusch G.D. et. Svensson L.E.O (1999). Policy rules for inflation targeting. in Taylor, J.B (Ed.). Monetary Policy Rules. Chap. 5 - pp. 203-262. Chicago University Press.
48. Smets F. et Wouters R. (2003). An estimated Dynamics Stochastic General Equilibrium model of the Euro Area. Journal of the European Economic Association. pp. 1123-1175.
49. Smets F. et Wouters R. (2005). Comparing shocks and frictions in Us and Euro Area business cycles : A Bayesian approach. Journal of the European Economic Association. N°20. pp. 161-183.
50. Smets F. et Wouters R. (2007). Shocks and frictions in us business cycles : A Bayesian DSGE approach. American Economic Review. N°97(3) - pp. 586-606.
51. Steiner Y. (2003). Le coût réel de l’indépendance de la Banque Centrale : économie politique comparée de la Deutsche Bundesbank et de la Banque du Japon dans les années soixante-dix. Université de Lausanne, Institut d’études politiques et internationales.
52. Svensson L.E.O (1997). Inflation forecast targeting : implementing and monitoring inflation targets. European Economic Review. Vol. 41- N°6 - pp- 1111-1146.
53. Svensson L.E.O (1999). Inflation targeting as monetary policy rule. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol. 43 N°3 - pp. 607-654.
54. Svensson L.E.O (2010). Inflation targeting, in Friedman B. et Woodford M. (éds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics. Vol. 3 - N°3 - Chap. 22, pp. 1237-1302. Amsterdam : Elsevier Science, North-Holland.
55. Tachibana M. (2004). Central Banks’ preferences in Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Japan and the World Economy. Vol. 16 - pp. 81-93.
56. Taylor J.B. (1979). Estimation and control of a macroeconomic model with rational expectations. Econometrica. Vol. 47 N°5 - pp. 1267-1286.
57. Walsh C. (1995). Optimal contracts for independent central bankers. American Economic Review. Vol. 85, pp. 150-167.
Published
2024-12-31
How to Cite
Soulemanou, & Tadadjeu, D.-K. (2024). Mesure du Conservatisme de la Banque Centrale : Une évaluation empirique appliquée au cas de la Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale (BEAC). European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 20(34), 168. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2024.v20n34p168
Section
ESJ Social Sciences
Copyright (c) 2024 Soulemanou, Dessy-Karl Tadadjeu
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