La perception de l’évolution du climat et de la vulnérabilité aux épidémies de paludisme et de choléra liées au changement climatique dans les localités de Bol, Fianga, Moundou et N’Djaména (Tchad)
Abstract
L’étude examine la perception des populations de Bol, Fianga, Moundou et N’Djaména (Tchad) concernant l’évolution du climat et la vulnérabilité aux épidémies de paludisme et de choléra liées aux changements climatiques. En s’appuyant sur une enquête représentative menée en 2024 auprès de 1 536 individus, l’analyse combine des approches bivariées et multivariées pour identifier les déterminants démographiques, socioéconomiques, géographiques et climatiques des perceptions locales. Les analyses multivariées montrent que la perception d’une augmentation du paludisme est plus marquée chez les hommes (OR≈1,4), les jeunes adultes de 20‑35 ans (OR≈1,6) et les personnes ayant un niveau d’éducation secondaire ou supérieur (OR≈1,5), tandis que celle du choléra est particulièrement élevée chez les ménages à revenus plus élevés (OR≈1,7), les personnes mariées (OR≈1,3) et les habitants des zones exposées aux inondations (OR≈1,8). Les facteurs climatiques, tels que les sécheresses prolongées et les inondations fréquentes, restent également significativement associés à une perception accrue de ces maladies. Ces résultats multivariés mettent en évidence que la perception des risques sanitaires liés au climat varie selon des caractéristiques sociodémographiques et environnementales spécifiques, soulignant la nécessité de cibler ces facteurs dans les interventions de santé publique et les stratégies de résilience climatique.
The study examines the perceptions of the populations of Bol, Fianga, Moundou, and N'Djaména (Chad) concerning climate change and vulnerability to malaria and cholera epidemics linked to climate change. Based on a representative survey of 1,536 individuals conducted in 2024, the analysis combines bivariate and multivariate approaches to identify the demographic, socio-economic, geographical, and climatic determinants of local perceptions. The multivariate analyses show that the perception of an increase in malaria is more marked among men (OR≈1.4), young adults aged 20-35 (OR≈1.6) and people with secondary or higher education (OR≈1, 5), while that of cholera is particularly high among higher-income households (OR≈1.7), married people (OR≈1.3) and residents of flood-prone areas (OR≈1.8). Climatic factors, such as prolonged drought and frequent flooding, also remained significantly associated with an increased perception of these diseases. These multivariate results highlight that the perception of climate-related health risks varies according to specific socio-demographic and environmental characteristics, underlining the need to target these factors in public health interventions and climate resilience strategies.
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