Peut-on encore accroître le niveau des recettes fiscales hors pétrole en République du Congo ?
Keywords:
Effort fiscal, potentiel fiscal, prélèvement fiscal, ARDL, taxation optimale
Abstract
Cet article fait recours à l’approche du potentiel fiscal et à celle de la taxation optimale pour évaluer le niveau optimal de prélèvement fiscal hors pétrole en République du Congo. Les données couvrent la période allant de 1985 à 2022. Sur la base de l’approche ARDL, les résultats des deux approches renseignent que le potentiel fiscal hors pétrole est sous-exploité, suggérant ainsi la possibilité d’accroître le niveau des recettes fiscales hors pétrole dans ce pays. Cependant, la portée de l’effort fiscal négatif obtenu par la méthode de la taxation optimale est plus élevée que celle obtenue par l’approche du potentiel fiscal. De plus, l’approche par le potentiel fiscal montre que la profondeur du marché financier et la production des biens échangeables influencent positivement le niveau de prélèvement fiscal hors pétrole, alors que la corruption l’influence négativement. Devant de tels résultats, l’article suggère entre autres que les décideurs publics devraient entreprendre des mesures visant à élever le potentiel fiscal hors pétrole et à améliorer l’effort fiscal hors pétrole. De telles mesures passeraient prioritairement par la lutte contre la corruption et l’amélioration de la qualité des institutions.
This article uses the fiscal potential and optimal taxation approaches to assess the level of non-oil taxation in the Republic of Congo. The data covers the period from 1985 to 2022. The results obtained using the ARDL approach indicate that the non-oil tax potential is underutilized, suggesting the possibility of increasing the level of non-oil tax revenues in this country. However, the underutilized non-oil tax potential is higher with the unbalanced budget model, which implicitly takes into account the effects of public debt and accumulated arrears on the level of non-oil tax revenue. On the other hand, with the balanced budget model, these two variables are ignored, and the non-oil tax potential is therefore lower. Furthermore, the fiscal potential approach shows that the depth of the financial market and the production of tradable goods have a positive influence on the level of non-oil tax collection, while corruption has a negative influence. Given these results, the article suggests, among other things, that public decision-makers should take measures to increase non-oil tax potential and improve non-oil tax efforts. Such measures would primarily involve fighting corruption and improving the quality of institutions.
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References
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25. Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels : Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.
26. Helms, L. J. (1995). The effect of state and local taxes on economic growth: A time series-cross section approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 574-582.
27. Husnain, M. I. Haider, A. et Salman, A. (2015). Determining the Optimal Level of Taxes in South Asia: An Unbalanced Budget Approach. The Empirical Economics Letter, 14(8), 809-815.
28. Jebali, B. et Boussida, S. (2020). Effort et potentiel fiscaux en Tunisie : Une analyse économétrique par l’approche ARDL. Notes et analyses de l’ITCEQ, n°60.
29. Judd, K. L. (1985b). Sort-Run analysis of fiscal policy in a simple perfect foresight model. Journal of Political Economics, 93(2), 298-319. https://doi.org/10.1086/261301.
30. Karagöz, K. (2013). Determinants of Tax Revenue: Does Sectorial Composition Matter ? Journal of Finance, Accounting and Management, 4(2), 50-63.
31. Kobyagda, L. I. et Binin, K. Y. A. (2021). Analysis of the potential and fiscal effort of the countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, African Multidisciplinary. Tax Journal, 2021(1), 22-41.
32. Koester, R. B. et Kormendi, R. C. (1989), Taxation aggregate activity and economic growth: Cross- country evidence on some supply-side hypotheses. Economic Inquiry, 27(3), 367-386.
33. Kormendi, R. C. et Meguire, P. G. (1995). Government debt, government spending, and private- sector behavior: Reply. The American Economic Review, 85(5), 1357-1361.
34. Kumbhakar, S. C. Lien, G. et Hardaker, J, B. (2014). Technical efficiency in competing panel data models: a study of Norwegian grain farming. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 41(2), 321-337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11123-012-0303-1.
35. Korsu R. D. (2021). A Stochastic Frontier Estimation of Tax Efficiency in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), AERC Research Paper 417.
36. Laffer, A. B. (1981), Supply-Side Economics. Financial Analysts Journal, 37(5), p.29-44.
37. Langford B. et Ohlenburg T. (2016). Tax revenue potential and effort-an empirical investigation. Working Paper International Growth Centre, version: 31 January 2016.
38. Lotz, J. R. et Morss, E. R. (1967). Measuring approach to tax effort and tax ratio analysis. IMF Staff Papers, 14(3), 571-612.
39. Mann, A. (2004). Are semi-autonomous revenue authorities the answer to tax administration problems in developing countries? A pratical guide, Research paper for the project: Fiscal Reform in Support of Trade Liberalization.
40. Martinez-Vazquez, J. et Alm, J. (2003). Institutions, Paradigms, and Tax Evasion in Developing and Transition Countries. Dans, Martinez-Vazquez J, et Alm J, (dir,), Public finance in developing and transitional countries : essays in honor of Richard Bird, 146-178. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, Ma,: Edward Elgar Publishers.
41. McBride, W. (2015). What Is the Evidence on Taxes and Growth? Tax Foundation Special. Beijing Law Review, 6(1).
www.taxfoundation.org.
42. Mendoza, E. G. Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. et Asea, P. (1997). On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger’ super neutrality conjecture. Journal of Public Economics, 66(1), 99-126. https://doi,org/10,1016/S0047-2727(97)00011-X.
43. Minea A. et Villieu P. (2009). Impôts, déficit et croissance économique : un réexamen de la courbe de Laffer. Revue d’Economie Politique, 119(4), 653-675.
44. Mirrlees, J. A. (1971). An exploration of the Theory of Optimal Income Taxation. Review of Economic Studies 38(2), 175-208.
45. Motloja, L. Makhoana, T. Kassoma, R. Houdman, R. et Phiri, A. (2016). Changes in the optimal tax rate in South Africa prior and subsequent to the global recession period. MPRA Paper n°74342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
46. Ngakosso, A. (2019). Comment construire un système fiscal transparent. Colloque de l’Association Dauphinoise d’Administration Fiscale (ADAF). Université Paris Dauphine.
47. Ngakosso, A. (2015). Comment la fiscalité peut-elle contribuer à la monétarisation d’une économie. Edition Publibook, Paris.
48. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
49. Pessino, C. et Fenechietto, R. (2010). Determining Countries Tax Effort. Hacienda Pùblica Espanola/Review of Public Economics, 195(4), 65-87. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2140805.
50. Pessino, C. et Fenochietto, R. (2013). Understanding countries’ tax effort (IMF Working Paper no, 13/244, Washington, D,C,: International Monetary Fund.
51. Piancastelli, M. (2001). Measuring the tax effort of developed and developing countries: cross- countries panel data analysis, Discussion Paper. IPEA, Rio de Janeiro, p.1990-95.
52. Ramsey, F. (1927). A Contribution to the Theory of Taxation. Economic Journal, 37(45), 47-61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2222721.
53. Saibu, O. M. (2015). Optimal Tax Rate and Economic Growth, Evidence from Nigeria Center and South Africa. Euro Economica, 1(34), 41-50. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3510410.
54. Sayegh, G. R. et Saade, H. N. (2020). Taux de taxation optimale et croissance économique : une Application Empirique au cas du Liban. Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française, 5(2), 66-86. https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2020.2.3.
55. Scully, G. W. (1996). Taxation and Economic Growth in New Zealand, Pacific Economic Review, 1(2), 169-177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.1996.tb00182.x.
56. Scully, G.W. (2003). Optimal Taxation, Economic Growth and Income Inequality. Public Choice, 115, 299-312. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024223916710.
57. Shin, K. (1969). International Difference in Tax Ratio. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51(2), 213-20. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926733.
58. Slemrod, J. (1990). Optimal taxation and optimal tax system. Journal of Economics Perspectives, 4(1), 157-178. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.4.1.157.
59. Tanzi, V. (1992). Structural Factors and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: A Decade of Evidence, Dans Ian Goldin et L, Alan Winters (dir,), Open Economics: Structural Adjustment & Agriculture, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 267-81.
60. Thiao, A. et Ouonogo, S. (2021). La mobilisation des ressources fiscales en Afrique Subsaharienne : quel rôle des flux financiers illicites ? Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française, 6(1), 61-78. https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2021.1.3.
61. Vedder, R. K. et Gallaway, L. E. (1998). Government size and economic growth. Modern Economy, 9(10), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.12691/ijefm-6-1-2.
62. Villieu, P. (2015). Macroéconomie, Economica, Paris.
63. Williamson, O. E. (2000). The new institutional economics: taking stock, looking ahead. The Journal of Economic Literature, 38(3), 595-613. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.3.595.
2. Ahsan, S. M. et Wu, S. (2005). Tax structure and reform in China, 1979-2002. Mimeo, Department of Economics, Concordia University, Canada.
3. Aisen, A. et Veiga, F. J. (2004). How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth ? IFM Working paper WP1112, 1-28.
4. Alfirman, L. (2003). Estimating Stochastic Frontier Tax Potential: Can Indonesian Local Governments Increase Tax Revenues Under Decentralization ? Center for Economic Analysis. Working Paper, 03-19.
5. Amgain, J. (2017). Estimating Optimal Level of Taxation for Growth Maximization in Asia. Applied Economics and Finance, 4(3), 47-55.
6. Amin, S. M. R. Alam, M. Z. Rahman, M. M. Hossain, M. M. Mian, I. H. (2014). Study on Morphogical Characteristics of Leaves, Shoots and Fruits of Selected Brinjal Varieties/Lines Influencing Brinjal Shoot and Fruit Borer Infestation. International Journal of Economic Plants, 1(1), 1-8.
7. Armey, R. K. (1995). The Freedom Revolution : The New Republican House Majority Leader Tells Why Big Government Failed, Why Freedom Works, and How We Will Rebuild America, Washington, D.C : Reger Publishing In.
8. Atkinson, A. et Stigligtz, J. E. (1980). Lectures on Public Economics, New York : McGraw Hill,
9. Bahl, R. W. (2003). Reaching the Hardest to Tax : Consequences and Possibilities, The Hard-to-Tax : An International Perspective, Georgia State University, Atlanta.
10. Banque Mondiale (2018). Rapport annuel. Washington, DC.
11. Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 9(5), 103-125, URL : https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937633.
12. Battese, G. E. et Coelli, T. J. (1995). A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical economics, 20, 325-332.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01205442.
13. Brun, J-F. Chambas, G, et Combes, J-L. (2006). Recettes publiques des pays en développement, Méthode d'évaluation, Statéco, n°100, 163-171. https://hal.science/hal-00116757v1.
14. Brun, J-F. et Diakité, M. (2016). Tax Potential and Tax Effort : An Empirical Estimation for Nonresource Tax Revenue and VAT’s Revenue. Études et Documents, n°10, CERDI.
http://cerdi.org/production/show/id/1814/type_production_id/1.
15. Caldeira, E. Compaore, A. Adessé, D. A. Mensour, M. Rota-Graziosi, G. (2019). Effort fiscal en Afrique Subsaharienne : les résultats d’une nouvelle base de données. Revue d’économie du développement, 27(4), 5-51. https://doi.org/10.3917/edd.334.0005.
16. Caner, M. et Hansen, B. E. (2004). Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold model. Econometric Theory, 20(5), 813-843.
17. Chamley, C. (1986). Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives. Econometrica, 54(3), 607-622.
18. Charnes, A., Cooper, W., Lewin, A. Y. et Seiford, L. M. (1997). Data Envelopment Analysis Theory, Methodology and Applications. Journal of the operational Research Society, 48(3), 332-333. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600342.
19. Deprins, D. Simar, L, et Tulkens, H, (1984). Measuring Labor-Efficiency in Post Offices. Dans, Marchand M., Pestieau, P, et Tulkens, H, (dir,). The Performance of Public Enterprises: Concepts and measurement, Amsterdam Elsevier, 243-267.
20. Eltony, M. N. (2002). The Determinants of Tax Effort in Arab Countries. Arab Planning Institute, Working Paper n°207.
21. Emeka, N et Aham, K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique : application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63-91.
22. FMI (2024). Rapport sur le Congo, n° 24/252. Disponible sur internet : http://www.imf.org.
23. Gupta, A. S. (2007). Determinants of Tax Revenue Efforts in Developping Countries. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 07/184.
24. Haldenwang, C. V. Von Schiller, A. et Garcia, M. (2014). Tax collection in developping countries- new evidence on semi-autonomous revenue agencies (Saras). Journal of Development Studio, 50(4), 541-555.
25. Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels : Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.
26. Helms, L. J. (1995). The effect of state and local taxes on economic growth: A time series-cross section approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 574-582.
27. Husnain, M. I. Haider, A. et Salman, A. (2015). Determining the Optimal Level of Taxes in South Asia: An Unbalanced Budget Approach. The Empirical Economics Letter, 14(8), 809-815.
28. Jebali, B. et Boussida, S. (2020). Effort et potentiel fiscaux en Tunisie : Une analyse économétrique par l’approche ARDL. Notes et analyses de l’ITCEQ, n°60.
29. Judd, K. L. (1985b). Sort-Run analysis of fiscal policy in a simple perfect foresight model. Journal of Political Economics, 93(2), 298-319. https://doi.org/10.1086/261301.
30. Karagöz, K. (2013). Determinants of Tax Revenue: Does Sectorial Composition Matter ? Journal of Finance, Accounting and Management, 4(2), 50-63.
31. Kobyagda, L. I. et Binin, K. Y. A. (2021). Analysis of the potential and fiscal effort of the countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, African Multidisciplinary. Tax Journal, 2021(1), 22-41.
32. Koester, R. B. et Kormendi, R. C. (1989), Taxation aggregate activity and economic growth: Cross- country evidence on some supply-side hypotheses. Economic Inquiry, 27(3), 367-386.
33. Kormendi, R. C. et Meguire, P. G. (1995). Government debt, government spending, and private- sector behavior: Reply. The American Economic Review, 85(5), 1357-1361.
34. Kumbhakar, S. C. Lien, G. et Hardaker, J, B. (2014). Technical efficiency in competing panel data models: a study of Norwegian grain farming. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 41(2), 321-337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11123-012-0303-1.
35. Korsu R. D. (2021). A Stochastic Frontier Estimation of Tax Efficiency in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), AERC Research Paper 417.
36. Laffer, A. B. (1981), Supply-Side Economics. Financial Analysts Journal, 37(5), p.29-44.
37. Langford B. et Ohlenburg T. (2016). Tax revenue potential and effort-an empirical investigation. Working Paper International Growth Centre, version: 31 January 2016.
38. Lotz, J. R. et Morss, E. R. (1967). Measuring approach to tax effort and tax ratio analysis. IMF Staff Papers, 14(3), 571-612.
39. Mann, A. (2004). Are semi-autonomous revenue authorities the answer to tax administration problems in developing countries? A pratical guide, Research paper for the project: Fiscal Reform in Support of Trade Liberalization.
40. Martinez-Vazquez, J. et Alm, J. (2003). Institutions, Paradigms, and Tax Evasion in Developing and Transition Countries. Dans, Martinez-Vazquez J, et Alm J, (dir,), Public finance in developing and transitional countries : essays in honor of Richard Bird, 146-178. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, Ma,: Edward Elgar Publishers.
41. McBride, W. (2015). What Is the Evidence on Taxes and Growth? Tax Foundation Special. Beijing Law Review, 6(1).
www.taxfoundation.org.
42. Mendoza, E. G. Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. et Asea, P. (1997). On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger’ super neutrality conjecture. Journal of Public Economics, 66(1), 99-126. https://doi,org/10,1016/S0047-2727(97)00011-X.
43. Minea A. et Villieu P. (2009). Impôts, déficit et croissance économique : un réexamen de la courbe de Laffer. Revue d’Economie Politique, 119(4), 653-675.
44. Mirrlees, J. A. (1971). An exploration of the Theory of Optimal Income Taxation. Review of Economic Studies 38(2), 175-208.
45. Motloja, L. Makhoana, T. Kassoma, R. Houdman, R. et Phiri, A. (2016). Changes in the optimal tax rate in South Africa prior and subsequent to the global recession period. MPRA Paper n°74342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
46. Ngakosso, A. (2019). Comment construire un système fiscal transparent. Colloque de l’Association Dauphinoise d’Administration Fiscale (ADAF). Université Paris Dauphine.
47. Ngakosso, A. (2015). Comment la fiscalité peut-elle contribuer à la monétarisation d’une économie. Edition Publibook, Paris.
48. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
49. Pessino, C. et Fenechietto, R. (2010). Determining Countries Tax Effort. Hacienda Pùblica Espanola/Review of Public Economics, 195(4), 65-87. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2140805.
50. Pessino, C. et Fenochietto, R. (2013). Understanding countries’ tax effort (IMF Working Paper no, 13/244, Washington, D,C,: International Monetary Fund.
51. Piancastelli, M. (2001). Measuring the tax effort of developed and developing countries: cross- countries panel data analysis, Discussion Paper. IPEA, Rio de Janeiro, p.1990-95.
52. Ramsey, F. (1927). A Contribution to the Theory of Taxation. Economic Journal, 37(45), 47-61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2222721.
53. Saibu, O. M. (2015). Optimal Tax Rate and Economic Growth, Evidence from Nigeria Center and South Africa. Euro Economica, 1(34), 41-50. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3510410.
54. Sayegh, G. R. et Saade, H. N. (2020). Taux de taxation optimale et croissance économique : une Application Empirique au cas du Liban. Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française, 5(2), 66-86. https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2020.2.3.
55. Scully, G. W. (1996). Taxation and Economic Growth in New Zealand, Pacific Economic Review, 1(2), 169-177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.1996.tb00182.x.
56. Scully, G.W. (2003). Optimal Taxation, Economic Growth and Income Inequality. Public Choice, 115, 299-312. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024223916710.
57. Shin, K. (1969). International Difference in Tax Ratio. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51(2), 213-20. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926733.
58. Slemrod, J. (1990). Optimal taxation and optimal tax system. Journal of Economics Perspectives, 4(1), 157-178. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.4.1.157.
59. Tanzi, V. (1992). Structural Factors and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: A Decade of Evidence, Dans Ian Goldin et L, Alan Winters (dir,), Open Economics: Structural Adjustment & Agriculture, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 267-81.
60. Thiao, A. et Ouonogo, S. (2021). La mobilisation des ressources fiscales en Afrique Subsaharienne : quel rôle des flux financiers illicites ? Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française, 6(1), 61-78. https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2021.1.3.
61. Vedder, R. K. et Gallaway, L. E. (1998). Government size and economic growth. Modern Economy, 9(10), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.12691/ijefm-6-1-2.
62. Villieu, P. (2015). Macroéconomie, Economica, Paris.
63. Williamson, O. E. (2000). The new institutional economics: taking stock, looking ahead. The Journal of Economic Literature, 38(3), 595-613. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.3.595.
Published
2026-02-28
How to Cite
Ongounga, F. F., & Bakala, T. A. (2026). Peut-on encore accroître le niveau des recettes fiscales hors pétrole en République du Congo ?. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 22(4), 163. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2026.v22n4p163
Section
ESJ Social Sciences
Copyright (c) 2026 Freddy Fortuné Ongounga, Toussaint Armel Bakala
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
