La survie des filières africaines sur les marchés d’exportation: une analyse de durée au niveau produit-pays
Abstract
Cette étude analyse les facteurs qui déterminent la survie des filières africaines sur les marchés d’exportation. Elle s'appuie sur les données COMTRADE (classification HS6) concernant 16 pays africains pour la période 2000-2019, soit un échantillon de 5 652 épisodes d'exportation au niveau produit-pays. L’analyse utilise l’estimateur non paramétrique de Kaplan-Meier ainsi que le modèle semi-paramétrique à risques proportionnels de Cox. Les résultats descriptifs montrent que la probabilité de survie à dix ans n'est que de 47,4 %, avec une mortalité particulièrement élevée dès la première année. Les estimations du modèle de Cox indiquent que la taille relative des exportations (SIZEREL) et la valeur totale exportée (TOTALVALUE) sont associées à un risque accru de sortie (coefficients positifs significatifs), tandis que le degré de concentration des marchés (HHIN) réduit ce risque (coefficient négatif, mais marginalement significatif). Ces résultats soulignent la vulnérabilité des grandes filières africaines, souvent liées à des produits primaires, et l'intérêt potentiel d'une spécialisation sélective. Ils invitent à mettre en place des politiques favorisant la diversification qualitative et la consolidation des relations commerciales.
This article analyzes the determinants of the survival of African commodity chains in export markets. It draws on COMTRADE data (HS6 classification) covering 16 African countries for the period 2000–2019, comprising a sample of 5,652 export observations at the product-country level. The analysis uses the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator as well as the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model. The descriptive results show that the ten-year survival probability is only 47.4%, with a particularly high mortality rate from the first year onwards. Estimates from the Cox model indicate that the relative size of exports (SIZEREL) and total export value (TOTALVALUE) are associated with an increased risk of exit (significant positive coefficients), whilst the degree of market concentration (HHIN) reduces this risk (negative coefficient, but marginally significant). These results highlight the vulnerability of major African sectors, often linked to primary products, and the potential benefits of selective specialisation. They suggest the need to implement policies that promote qualitative diversification and the consolidation of trade relations.
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